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สาส์นจากนายกสมาคม TRA PRESIDENT VIEW
 
   PRESIDENT VIEW
   Natural Rubber Situation in 2024
The global economy tends to slow down due to the effects of high inflation and interest rates. There are also strengthening of the US Dollar issues and geopolitical conflicts (Geopolitical Tension). For example, the war between Israel and Palestine may expand, and the Russian-Ukrainian war may intensify. Furthermore, the US-China economic polarization (Decoupling), in which the US and its allies reduce their reliance on trade with China and rely more on its group. Moreover, China's economy is slowing down due to structural problems. As a result, it may affect the global supply chain and Thai product exports. Besides, drought problems may be more severe than expected, resulting in a severe slowdown in agricultural production. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has estimated that the world real GDP growth rate will be 2.6% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. As for Thailand's economy in 2024, the export is expected to recover from the trend of global trade expansion and supply chain issues easing.

The rubber situation in 2024 is expected to slow down due to factors related to the global economy and the Chinese economy, which tend to grow at a slower rate, pressuring rubber prices to decline. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) projects the world's natural rubber production in 2023 at 15.15 million tons (up 3.5% from 2022), with Thailand being the world's largest NR producer, followed by Indonesia, Cote d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and India, respectively. As for the world's natural rubber demand, it is 15.44 million tons (down 0.5% from 2022), with China consuming the most natural rubber worldwide, followed by Thailand, India, EU-27& UK, and Indonesia, respectively. Thailand has faced the risk of more frequent and severe climate change. Furthermore, Thai entrepreneurs have faced the challenge of adapting to more strict climate change regulations around the world, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products, which will come into effect in early 2025, covering 7 product groups: cocoa, coffee, soybeans, rubber, oil palm, cattle, and wood.

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association (TRA) strongly believes in long-lasting relationships and cooperations with the concerned sectors, i.e., government agencies, the private sector, rubber farmers, as well as the three largest natural rubber producers, namely Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other rubber-producing countries in ASEAN, to provide strategic direction and solutions to falling prices in the short-term and long-term and prepare to deal with various trade regulations for the sustainability of natural rubber.

On the occasion of the New Year 2024, I extend to you and your family our warmest greetings and wish you a happy New Year, great success in your career, happiness in your family, and perfect health and lasting prosperity.

Mr. Chaiyos Sincharoenkul
President
The Thai Rubber Association

Monthly of   January  2024     
     
  history  
 
[   November  2013 ]
icon Thai natural rubber in AEC

Natural rubber is a plant of economic importance of Thailand and South East Asian region.  The region is the largest producer and exporter of natural rubber in Asia and the world with the market share of 80%. Among the region, Thailand is the top of global market share (33.1%), followed by Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. Thailand is the world’s lar...

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[   October  2013 ]
icon A study trip and meeting in the Northeast

Natural rubber is a plant of economic importance of Thailand, involving over 6 million people from various sectors: farmers, entrepreneurs, labourers and government agencies. In 2012, Thailand produced 3.78 million tonnes of natural rubber. The value of the overall export of rubber and rubberwood is 647,906 million baht, of which 327,275 million baht is from 3.12 million tonnes of primary processed rubber and compound rubber, 259,832 million baht from ru...

     [ Read more...]  

[   September  2013 ]
icon Driving rubber industry with intellectual property

As everyone may have known, Thailand has been the world’s largest producer and exporter of natural rubber since 1991. In contrast, domestic consumption in the country is low, compared to production quantity as Thai rubber industry is agricultural-based, concentrating on exporting primary processing products to other countries for industrial purpose.  Consequently, Thailand encounters a problem of price volatility and instability, affecting the livelihood...

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[   August  2013 ]
icon Rubber Products Expo 3

Thailand is one the world’s most important rubber production bases. Currently, Thailand covers the natural rubber plantation area of 18.7 million rai (2.992 million hectares), of which mature area is 13.81 million rai (2.2096 million hectares). In 2013, the annual rubber output is expected to reach 3.86 million tonnes, of which 13% is domestically consumed, 83% is exported in the form of primary processing products, generating income of over 600 ...

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[   July  2013 ]
icon Rubber trade contract sanctity

Global rubber trade lies in two categories i.e. futures markets, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Commodity Exchange, Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand for example and direct trade in physical markets.

In futures market, both actual physical delivery and cash settlement are practiced. But mostly, cash settlement is preferred as to speculate for difference of prices at different time.

Direct trad...

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