Global Economic Overview in August 2025: The global economy continues to face pressure but is expected to improve following the U.S. announcement of a “Reciprocal Tariff” trade agreement with several countries. This agreement reduces most tariffs and is expected to make exports more competitive. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025. In Thailand, however, the economy is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 compared with the first half, due to both direct and indirect impacts of U.S. tariffs. The number of short-haul tourists is projected to decline, while headline inflation is expected to remain low. Low inflation will help alleviate rising costs for households and businesses, but credit risks are increasing, leading to a contraction in loans. Private consumption is also expected to expand at a slower pace due to declining confidence and income trends. Additional challenges include the impact of transshipment taxes and heightened competition from imported goods, both of which will need to be closely monitored. Overall, Thailand’s economy is projected to slow in the coming period. At its meeting on August 13, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.75% per annum.

In August 2025, Thailand was affected by Typhoon Kajiki, which brought heavy to very heavy rainfall across many areas, along with strong winds in the upper Northeastern and Northern regions. Thunderstorms and heavy rain also persisted in parts of the Northern, Northeastern, Eastern, and Western Southern regions.

In August 2025, rubber prices in Thailand remained volatile. Overall, average prices declined compared with the previous month due to trade uncertainties—particularly in the United States and China—rubber disease outbreaks, and unstable weather conditions. The average prices in August 2025 were 54.48 baht per kilogram for Field Latex (price at factory), 56.16 baht per kilogram for USS3 (Unsmoked Sheets), and 61.34 baht per kilogram for RSS3 (Ribbed Smoked Sheets). All three categories recorded lower prices compared with the previous month. In July 2025, Thailand’s rubber exports totaled 359,000 tons (+14% MoM), valued at 21.9 billion baht (+9% MoM).

The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) allocated a budget of 2.8 billion baht for a rubber tree felling and replanting project, providing farmers with 16,000 baht per rai in advance of RAOT approval. RAOT had approved applications covering 302,452.10 rai (data as of August 27, 2025), representing 87.24% of total applications and a project value of 46 billion baht, with payments scheduled to be completed by September 15, 2025. In September, RAOT will begin testing the first shipment of 400 tons of cup lump as a pilot project of rubber shipment with the Chinese government. Additionally, commercial shipments are expected to increase to 2,400 tons in October 2025 and subsequently to 10,000 tons per month. All exported rubber under this project will be subject to a 0% import tax, which is a key mechanism aimed at raising Thailand’s rubber prices and boosting export volumes. Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives issued the regulation on ‘the Designation of Rubber Transport Control Zones B.E. 2568 (2025), published in the Royal Gazette (Volume 142, Special Issue 275ง, page 8) on August 18, 2025. This regulation aims to prevent the illegal smuggling of rubber from neighboring countries, which could destabilize domestic rubber prices and reduce farmers' incomes.

Finally, the uncertainty of the global economic situation and ongoing climate variability continue to exert significant pressure on the rubber market. Moreover, it is important to monitor the progress and enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which could have further implications for the rubber industry.

Crude oil prices remain under pressure as OPEC+ prepares to increase crude oil production, with the official announcement expected at the OPEC+ meeting on September 7, 2025. The planned production increase comes amid concerns about the potential impact of ongoing U.S. tariff policies. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending August 26, 2025, decreased by 0.97 million barrels, below market expectations of a 1.7 million-barrel draw.