The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy will expand by approximately 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, under the baseline assumption that the conflict in the Middle East remains contained and does not become overly protracted. However, risks remain tilted to the downside, driven primarily by volatile commodity prices, persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and financial market volatility. The most substantial pressure this month stems from energy prices. The World Bank projects that global energy prices could surge by 24% in 2026 due to the repercussions of the Middle East conflict. Concurrently, overall commodity prices are expected to rise by 16%, while fertilizer prices could spike by 31%, heavily impacting global inflation, production costs, and the agricultural sector worldwide.
Furthermore, the growth momentum of the global economy is showing signs of deceleration heading into 2026. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that global merchandise trade volume will expand by a mere 1.9% in 2026, down sharply from 4.6% in 2025. Should high oil prices persist due to the prolonged conflict, global trade growth could decelerate further to around 1.4%. The commodities providing vital support to international trade include AI-related goods, electronics, digital components, ICT products, and data center infrastructure. Conversely, sectors under heavy pressure include energy, automotive, and commodities with high logistical cost structures. Additionally, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) noted that while trade growth sustained some momentum in early 2026, it has become increasingly fragile due to escalating trade costs, tariffs, protectionist measures, and shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Thai economy is trending toward slower growth as a direct consequence of the Middle East conflict, which has heightened the cost burdens on commercial businesses and eroded household purchasing power. Concurrently, the domestic inflation rate is projected to climb over the course of 2026. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has downgraded its growth forecasts, projecting that the Thai economy will slow to approximately 1.5% in 2026 and reach 2.0% in 2027. This downward revision is attributed to the regional conflict driving up business operating costs, dampening household spending power, and suppressing international tourist arrivals due to escalating travel expenses and flight constraints. Regarding the monetary policy direction, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on April 29, 2026, the Committee voted unanimously to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.00% per annum.
Weather
In April 2026, Thailand experienced oppressive-to-extremely hot weather conditions throughout almost the entire month, particularly across upper Thailand. Maximum temperatures surpassed 42°C in multiple areas, compounding risks related to drought and the availability of water resources for agricultural use. During the latter half of the month, thunderstorms increased due to summer storms and the influence of cold air masses descending from China. This resulted in heavy localized rainfall, gusty winds, and highly volatile weather patterns prior to the official transition into the rainy season.
Rubber Situation
In April 2026, global natural rubber prices recorded a distinct upward trajectory. According to data from Trading Economics, the benchmark rubber price as of April 30, 2026, stood at 215.40 US cents/kg, representing a monthly increase of 7.38% and a Year-on-Year (YoY) surge of 27.99%. The global natural rubber market was heavily supported by pervasive anxieties regarding supply constraints. These included supply tightness across Southeast Asia, localized drought conditions, and escalating raw material prices in Thailand and Vietnam. While rubber smallholders and farmers benefited from these elevated price levels, actual crop yields remained constrained by seasonal factors and volatile weather conditions, making realized farm income strictly dependent on actual tapping volumes. Overall, Thailand's natural rubber export volumes in March 2026 reached 450,000 tons, valued at 25.6 billion Baht. Cumulatively for the first quarter of 2026, total natural rubber export volumes reached 1.24 million tons, generating an export value of 69.7 billion Baht.
Crude Oil Prices: WTI & Brent
Crude oil prices continue to be volatile. Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices adjusted upward by over 6%, driven by sustained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as ceasefire and war-termination negotiations between the United States and Iran remain unresolved. Furthermore, the United States has enforced a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, completely banning vessels from entering or exiting Iranian ports. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released weekly commercial data for the period ending April 24, 2026, revealing that US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 million barrels, bringing the total stockpile to 459.5 million barrels.
Disclaimer: The information contained herein is obtained from a variety of sources and the dissemination of information is to provide information to interested parties only. The Thai Rubber Association is not responsible for any damages that may occur from the use of this information by any person.
