Global Economic Overview in September 2025: The global economy continues to face persistent downward pressure. The renewed escalation of the trade war under the Trump administration could further strain global economic activity, while China is experiencing pressure from both the supply and demand sides of its economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) recently announced an additional 0.25% cut to its policy interest rate, lowering the target range from 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%. This represents the first rate reduction in 2025 and reflects the Fed’s acknowledgment of heightened risks to the labor market. Two further rate cuts are anticipated within the year. However, declining confidence levels, a marked slowdown in labor market performance, and the continued impact of higher import tariffs are expected to place greater downward pressure on economic growth in the second half of the year.

Thailand’s export growth moderated noticeably in August, following the enforcement of the United States’ 19% countervailing duty effective from August 7. Exports to the U.S. market expanded by only 12.8% year-on-year, reflecting a marked slowdown. Concurrently, the appreciation of the Thai baht during the month continued to dampen export values when measured in local currency terms. In the near term, the government has prepared a series of economic stimulus measures aimed at supporting vulnerable groups and promoting domestic consumption and tourism. These initiatives are intended to sustain the recovery of domestic demand and cushion the impact of the export sector’s deceleration on overall economic growth.

In September 2025, most regions of Thailand experienced widespread and heavy rainfall—the highest levels recorded this year. This was primarily due to the monsoon trough lying across the central part of the country, combined with the prevailing southwest monsoon covering Thailand. As a result, 60–80% of the country experienced thunderstorms, with several areas facing heavy to very heavy rainfall. These conditions led to flash floods, forest runoffs, and river overflows in multiple areas. Additionally, Thailand may have been affected by tropical storms that either weakened near the country or made direct landfall, particularly in the eastern region.

Rubber Situation

In September 2025, Thailand’s rubber market continued to experience price volatility, with the overall average price declining from the previous month. The downward trend was mainly influenced by heightened uncertainty in global economic and trade conditions, particularly between the United States and China. During the month, the average prices in September 2025 were 55.70 baht per kilogram for Field Latex (price at factory), 55.64 baht per kilogram for USS3 (Unsmoked Sheets), and 68.36 baht per kilogram for RSS3 (Ribbed Smoked Sheets). Both the prices of USS3 and RSS3 declined compared to the previous month, whereas the price of Field Latex recorded a slight increase. In August 2025, rubber exports totaled 350,000 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 2.56%, with an export value of 20.5 billion baht, down 6.63% from the previous month.

Capt. Thammanat Prompao announced that the government will continue implementing urgent policy initiatives over the next four months, focusing primarily on addressing the issue of declining agricultural product prices and intensifying efforts to combat illegal imports of agricultural goods. Regarding the policy to raise rubber prices to triple-digit levels, following the policy statement to Parliament and the address to officials of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives on 2 October 2025, the Ministry will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, and other relevant ministries. The agreement aims to facilitate the purchase of car tires from the RAOT. In addition, all affiliated government agencies that utilize rubber-based products will be required to source them exclusively from the RAOT. The Ministry also plans to expand rubber markets abroad, with Capt. Thammanat scheduled to hold trade negotiations with key partner countries, particularly China. He emphasized that within the four-month timeframe, the overall prices of agricultural products are expected to rise significantly. Meanwhile, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has recently launched the Rubber Replanting Support Program for Fiscal Year 2026, accepting applications from 1 October 2025 to 31 March 2026. Under the revised scheme, the subsidy for replanting high-quality rubber varieties has been increased from 16,000 baht per rai to 20,000 baht per rai.

Lastly, the European Commission is currently considering a second postponement of the implementation of the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR), moving the start date from 30 December 2025 to late 2026. However, this delay still requires approval from the European Parliament and EU member states; therefore, no official decision has been made at this stage. Reports indicate that the postponement is driven by concerns regarding the readiness of the IT platform intended to manage compliance data, which could introduce operational uncertainties and challenges for both government agencies and the private sector.

Crude oil prices continued to face downward pressure and experienced volatility due to multiple factors. In the early part of the month, prices were pressured by the increase in production by OPEC+. However, in mid-September, prices surged amid supply concerns following attacks on energy infrastructure of Russia by Ukraine, as well as supply disruptions in Iraq. However, towards the end of the month, oil prices began to decline again, reflecting market concerns over rising supply and a slowdown in economic activity. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending 19 September 2025 fell by 0.61 million barrels, reaching 414.8 million barrels.