The year 2026 has commenced amidst a landscape of significant volatility. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the global economy will experience a growth deceleration to 3.1% in 2026, a decline from the 3.2% growth rate observed in 2025. This downward trend is largely driven by volatility and ambiguous outlooks regarding the United States tariff measures, which are expected to impact economic expansion and maintain elevated inflation levels across various nations, ultimately constraining global recovery. Beyond these fiscal uncertainties, the outlook is further complicated by high interest rates, the continued appreciation of the U.S. Dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions, specifically the trade frictions between the United States and China. Additionally, environmental pressures—including global warming and the prevalence of severe flooding—coupled with the one-year postponement of the EUDR implementation, represent critical factors influencing the natural rubber in 2026.

The natural rubber outlook for 2026 suggests a projected deceleration, primarily driven by the global economic conditions and the aforementioned macroeconomic factors. According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 15,324 million tons in 2026. This output, however, may be constrained by unfavorable weather patterns and biological impediments, such as the spread of Leaf Fall Disease. On the demand side, global consumption is anticipated to rise by 1.4% to 15,602 million tons in 2026, reflecting a steady requirement for natural rubber across diverse industrial sectors, including the tire and medical equipment industries (Source: CICC Wealth Futures). Despite these figures, the natural rubber market continues to face significant volatility and uncertainty, which exerts sustained pressure on long-term growth prospects. Thailand, in particular, remains vulnerable to the increasing frequency and intensity of climate change-related events. Moreover, Thai enterprises are confronted with the challenge of aligning with increasingly stringent international environmental regulations such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association anticipates robust collaboration among all relevant stakeholders, spanning the public sector, private enterprise, and stallholders. It is imperative that Thailand expeditiously refines its trade and export strategies, prioritizing the cultivation of new commercial partnerships and the exploration of emerging markets to effectively diversify export risks. Furthermore, proactive preparation for various international trade regulations is essential to maintain global competitiveness and ensure the long-term sustainability of the natural rubber industry.

Mr. Veerasith Sinchareonkul

President

The Thai Rubber Association