In November, Thailand’s rubber prices slightly changed in the line with foreign futures markets due to the rising domestic rubber demand. Meanwhile, the rubber output into the market was low because the natural rubber producing countries were affected by Molabe storm, Sodel storm, and increased rainfall. Moreover, a new rubber leaf fall disease called Colletotrichum sp. was reported in 7 provinces, including Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani, Songkhla, Phang Nga, Phatthalung, and Surat Thani. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has expedited to broadcast the advice to build the understandings and to suggest disease prevention, as well as disease eradication. November's average RSS3 price announced by Central Rubber Market in Songkhla stood at 64.69 Baht/kg, up 0.81% from the previous month.

Recently, rubber prices fluctuate due to various factors such as Baht appreciation, labor shortage, volatile crude oil prices, and political instability. Therefore, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has taken an important role in taking care of, solving rubber prices problems, and rolling out the remedy schemes; for example, subsidy schemes for rubber smallholders including delaying the rubber sale of farmer institution scheme, adding latex purchase points, and rubber pledging scheme phase 2 to reduce the risk of income. The prices specified by the scheme include Ribbed Smoked Sheet (RSS) 60 baht/kg., Latex 57 baht/kg., and Cup Lump (DRC 50%) 23 baht/kg. with not more than 25 rai/smallholder. The scheme will take time from October 2020 to March 2021 and will start to contribute subsidies around the end of November 2020. Overall, the measures will support rubber prices and help the rubber smallholders to have more stable incomes. Recently, Thai government has agreed to add remedy measures for rubber entrepreneurs (dry rubber) during the Covid-19 pandemic under the working capital loan support scheme for dry rubber entrepreneurs (Credit limit 20,000 million baht).

The 4th Meeting on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was held on 15 November 2020. RCEP is the world’s largest free trade agreement, and it is significant in improving competitiveness and the benefits of member countries. Moreover, the RCEP agreement will be mutually beneficial to facilitate the expansion of regional trade and investment. Besides, member countries will handle economic challenges in the future. Thailand’s Prime Minister attended the signing ceremony of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement with the delegates from 15 countries. Mr. Jurin Laksanawisit (Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce), a Thai delegate, had signed the RCEP agreement, and Thailand’s Prime Minister witnessed the signing ceremony.

In 2020, Thailand’s economy tends to slow recovery; however, it tends to rise in the Q3/2020. The inflation rate tends to be less negative. According to the 7th Monetary Policy Committee Meeting 2020 on 18 November 2020, the policy rate still remains at 0.50% per year in order to support the economic recovery and to be more focused on the remedy measures from the effects of the widespread covid-19 outbreak phrase 2 in many countries especially in EU and the U.S. where the situation remains worrisome. It is expected to be better in the next year because of the update on Covid-19 vaccines. In order for the vaccine to be effective, it will take time. Therefore, the Covid-19 outbreak must be monitored closely because it is one of the factors which impacts to all exports. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), they expect that the world’s economy to shrink at -4.4%. Meanwhile, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expect at -4.3%. 

October’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) is up to 86.0 from 85.2 because the production sector recovers following the continually increasing domestic demand. Moreover, the government has rolled out many economic stimulus campaigns to urge domestic spending such as “Rao Tiew Duay Kan” campaign (We Travel Together), “Kon La Khreung” campaign (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program), "Shop Dee Mee Kuen" campaign (Shop and Payback, the program offers taxpayers income tax deductions when spending up to THB 30,000 for products and services), etc. However, Thailand still confronts a labor shortage. Even though the import is recovering, some borders are still closed.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in October 2020, Thailand’s export income value 600,335.92 million baht, down 4.51% yoy, and down 1.56% compared with September 2020. From January to October 2020, Thailand’s export income value 5,987,376.15 million baht, down 7.38% yoy.

In terms of trade balance in October 2020, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 56,138.01 million baht, up from a trade surplus of 7,712.91 million baht in October 2019 (Ministry of Commerce, 2020).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US up to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI down to 50.4 in November from 50.8 in October due to the following factors. Export orders decrease. However, the productions and sale in domestic continually recover; besides, the stock of law material rise in November. However, the Covid-19 patient rise resulted in lockdown measures in many countries and will affect economic recovery.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories of the U.S. have decreased 0.75 million barrels at 488.7 million barrels for the week ending on 20 November 2020. In contrast with the forecast of the experts expecting it will rise 0.13 million barrels. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma decrease more than 1.7 million barrels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices slightly changed. On 27 November 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 45.53 and 48.18 USD/barrel, respectively.

In October 2020, Thailand exported 358,870.27 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 17.81% from the previous month and down 1.62% yoy, generating an export income of 15.2 billion baht, up 25.61% compared with the past month, up 4.08% yoy. In the tyre sector, in October 2020, Thailand exported 13.15 million units of all tyres, up 10.21% yoy, with an export value of 16.1 billion baht, up 9.53% YoY.

The amount of Thailand's car production in October 2020 is 149,360 units, down 2.24% yoy, including 67,203 units or 44.99% at export and 82,157 units or 55.01% at domestic sales. The car production for domestic sale has risen 18.81% yoy (55.01% of all the amount of car production in 2020). It has been increased two months in a row, which reflects that Thailand’s economy is recovering due to the lessening of the lockdown measure. However, car production for export still down at 19.65%. From January to October 2020, Thai produced 1,112,426 cars, down 35.53%yoy.