The U.S. economy continues to expand amid post-election policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, China's economy has improved due to U.S. policy uncertainty following the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, which is an important factor affecting economic direction. China's economy has shown more positive signals after the government accelerated economic stimulus measures, although the risk of a trade war remains a major concern. If the U.S. follows Trump's policy of increasing import tariffs on Chinese goods, China's exports and GDP could decline. The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) rose to 48.5 in October 2024, up from 47.3 in the previous month. Similarly, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased to 108.7 in October 2024, up from 98.7 in September 2024, driven by improving domestic economic conditions, particularly in the labor market.
Thailand's economy is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, driven by the recovery of the tourism and merchandise export sectors, as well as economic stimulus measures towards the end of the year. This growth persists despite economic pressure from the flooding, which has impacted Thailand's economy by at least 30 billion baht. The Monetary Policy Committee, in its meeting on Wednesday, October 16, 2024, voted 5 to 2 to reduce the policy interest rate by 0.25% per annum, from 2.50% to 2.25% per annum, effective immediately. This reduction is expected to alleviate some debt burdens without impeding efforts to reduce the household debt-to-income ratio, in a context where credit growth is expected to slow and the policy interest rate remains at a neutral level, aligned with economic potential. The overall financial situation has slightly tightened, with the baht-dollar exchange rate strengthening in line with the monetary policies of major economies. As for core inflation (general inflation excluding fresh food and energy), it increased by 0.77% YoY, unchanged from September 2024. Headline inflation in October 2024 increased by 0.83% YoY. However, Thailand's economy faces risks from key issues such as the global economic slowdown, volatile exchange rates, and unpredictable weather. The overall consumer confidence index in October 2024 also rose to 52.9, up from 51.6 the previous month.
In terms of Thailand’s international trade in October 2024, Thailand’s export income value was 896,735.19 million baht, up 14.6% YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 934,699.90 million baht, up 15.88% YoY. Thailand's trade balance in October 2024 recorded a deficit of 37,964.71 million baht (Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce, 2024).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 25, 2024, decreased by 0.5 million barrels, reaching 425.5 million barrels. Crude oil prices rose following reports that OPEC+ may consider postponing its plan to increase oil production. Additionally, the market is closely monitoring the U.S. elections, scheduled for November 5, 2024, after the Conference Board (CB) reported that the U.S. consumer confidence index increased from 99.2 in September 2024 to 108.7 in October 2024. On October 30, 2024, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at $68.61 and $72.55 per barrel, respectively.
In October 2024, the average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla adjusted, aligning with the foreign futures market, with the average SICOM rubber price at 199.63 cents per kg. The humid climate of Thailand contributes to the spread of fungi, increasing the likelihood of new leaf fall diseases, which in turn results in a decrease in overall production. However, it remains essential to monitor economic activities in China and the United States, the potential impacts following the U.S. election, and the progress of EUDR measures.
According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), Thailand produced 118,842 cars in October 2024, representing a 25.13% YoY decrease. Of these, 87,741 units were produced for export, accounting for 73.83% of total production, reflecting a 7% YoY decline. Meanwhile, 31,101 units were produced for domestic sale in September 2024, making up 26.17% of total production, which marks a 51.70% YoY decrease. Domestic car sales in October 2024 totaled 37,691 units, a 36.08% decrease compared to September 2024.
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