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สาส์นจากนายกสมาคม TRA PRESIDENT VIEW
 
   PRESIDENT VIEW
   The Natural Rubber Outlook for 2026
The year 2026 has commenced amidst a landscape of significant volatility. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the global economy will experience a growth deceleration to 3.1% in 2026, a decline from the 3.2% growth rate observed in 2025. This downward trend is largely driven by volatility and ambiguous outlooks regarding the United States tariff measures, which are expected to impact economic expansion and maintain elevated inflation levels across various nations, ultimately constraining global recovery. Beyond these fiscal uncertainties, the outlook is further complicated by high interest rates, the continued appreciation of the U.S. Dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions, specifically the trade frictions between the United States and China. Additionally, environmental pressures—including global warming and the prevalence of severe flooding—coupled with the one-year postponement of the EUDR implementation, represent critical factors influencing the natural rubber in 2026.

The natural rubber outlook for 2026 suggests a projected deceleration, primarily driven by the global economic conditions and the aforementioned macroeconomic factors. According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 15,324 million tons in 2026. This output, however, may be constrained by unfavorable weather patterns and biological impediments, such as the spread of Leaf Fall Disease. On the demand side, global consumption is anticipated to rise by 1.4% to 15,602 million tons in 2026, reflecting a steady requirement for natural rubber across diverse industrial sectors, including the tire and medical equipment industries (Source: CICC Wealth Futures). Despite these figures, the natural rubber market continues to face significant volatility and uncertainty, which exerts sustained pressure on long-term growth prospects. Thailand, in particular, remains vulnerable to the increasing frequency and intensity of climate change-related events. Moreover, Thai enterprises are confronted with the challenge of aligning with increasingly stringent international environmental regulations such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

In conclusion, the Thai Rubber Association anticipates robust collaboration among all relevant stakeholders, spanning the public sector, private enterprise, and stallholders. It is imperative that Thailand expeditiously refines its trade and export strategies, prioritizing the cultivation of new commercial partnerships and the exploration of emerging markets to effectively diversify export risks. Furthermore, proactive preparation for various international trade regulations is essential to maintain global competitiveness and ensure the long-term sustainability of the natural rubber industry.

Mr. Veerasith Sinchareonkul
President
The Thai Rubber Association

Monthly of   February  2026     
     
  history  
 
[   March  2020 ]
icon Retrospection and Prospection
The current committee of the Thai Rubber Association has been in the operation since 2018. The operation of the committee is based upon the following principles: 1) to operate on the principle of transparency and good governance; 2) to corporate with government agencies and private sector both at local and international level; 3) to cherish a close relationship with other rubber producing countries, particularly in Asia; 4) to act as a central body between r...
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[   February  2020 ]
icon The New Pestalotiopsis Leaf Disease Situation
The New Pestalotiopsis leaf disease began in 2016 in Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The disease had damaged 388,800 hectares of rubber trees in Indonesia, 122,530 hectares in Thailand, and 10,000 hectares in Malaysia. According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), in 2019, they forecasted that the disease made the rubber output dropped 329,000 tons in Indonesia and 121,000 tons in Thailand. Thailand has repo...
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[   January  2020 ]
icon Chinese Market
China-Thai relations have been good for decades in various aspects: trade, investment, and tourism. Especially, the natural rubber exports from Thailand to China continually expand. China is by far the largest consumer of natural rubber worldwide and most world tire production, so China's market is an important market to show a market sign of natural rubber demand each year. China’s economic direction is one of the factors which directly affect natural rub...
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[   December  2019 ]
icon Rubber Scenario in 2020
In 2020, the global economy tends to grow more positively as compared to 2019. International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the global economic growth rate as 3.4% in 2020. Meanwhile, Thai Government has rolled out the economic stimulus measures to establish economic strengths both in domestic and foreign countries. One of the most important measures is the investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), which needs clarity as well as a continuati...
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[   November  2019 ]
icon The Fundamental Factors of Rubber Market
Thailand’s rubber market begins when farmers harvest latex, ribbed smoked sheet (RSS), cup lump rubber, and smoked sheet cutting. Then, these yields are sold through small, middle, large middleman or rubber cooperative to sell raw materials to the upstream rubber factories, such as latex factory, RSS factory, STR factory, rubber compound factory, mixtures rubber factory, etc. After that, it is distributed to domestic rubber-based products manufacturers and...
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