The global economic outlook tends to recover, driven by economic stimulus measures and accelerated vaccine distribution in many countries. As a result, the business sector resumed operation. Furthermore, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised the US economic forecast after the US government has injected trillions of dollars into the economy. Meanwhile, Global growth in 2021 is projected to rise from the previous estimated +5.5 percent to +6.0 percent (International Monetary Fund). The upward revision reflects additional financial support in a few large economies. In summary, many countries tend to recover better than the expectation. China and the US GDP forecast changed from +8.1 percent to +8.4 percent and +5.1 percent to +6.4 percent, respectively. In contrast, Thailand's GDP forecast has changed to +2.6 percent, down from the former forecast of +2.7 percent.

Thailand’s economy in 2021 tends to slow recovery due to the impacts of the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, which affecting the domestic spending of the business sector and the household sector. Meanwhile, the tourism sector has not recovered yet because of the international travel restriction measure. However, export is recovering following trading partners’ economy and demand. According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council, Thailand’s inflation rate in Q1/21 was at -0.5%. However, the government should expedite the COVID-19 vaccine procurement and distribution in a sufficient and timely to control the outbreak. Moreover, the government should continue the measures and policies especially helping to improve the liquidity of the household and business sector,   debt reduction, and supporting economic recovery both in the short and long term. According to the 3rd Monetary Policy Committee Meeting 2021 held on May 5, 2021, the committee agreed to remain the interest rate at 0.5% per year for the Q1/21.

April’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) decrease to 84.3 from 87.3 due to the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, causing many infected. Moreover, the government's COVID-19 prevention and control measures have become more strict, and many people have to work from home. However, Thai entrepreneurs still confront container shortage issues, high crude oil prices, and high raw material prices. Meanwhile, the export sector gets advantages from the Baht depreciation. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in April 2021, Thailand’s export income value 656,592.93 million baht, up 6.93% yoy, down 8.69% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value 660,063.44 million baht, up 22.87%yoy, down 6.78% compared with the past month. In terms of trade balance in April 2021, Thailand recorded a trade deficit of 3,470.51 million baht; meanwhile, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 76,815.11 million baht at the same period last year (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the US manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) up to 62.1 in May 2021 from 60.5 in April 2021. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI down to 47.8 in May 2021 from 50.7 in the previous month. In April, the production sector is slow down. Additionally, yields and new orders decline as well as purchasing activities and employment. Furthermore, business confidence is also down because the demand is affected by the new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, which is more severe. However, there is a positive factor from foreign customer demand that is continually increasing.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have decreased 1.7 million barrels to 484.3 million barrels for the week ending on 21 May 2021. Crude oil prices increase. Also, crude oil demand tends to gradually recover, reflected by the strong recovery of the US economic numbers. The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell. Moreover, oil demand in the EU and the US tends to rise during the holiday, Memorial Day. Many sectors project that the OPEC+ members will agree to gradually increase the production to 350,000 barrels per day in June 2021 and 441,000 barrels per day in July 2021. On 28 May 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 66.32 and 69.63 USD/barrel

In May 2021, rubber yield increase because it is the beginning of tapping season yet. The yield out to the market is still less due to the heavy rain in many rubber plantations of Thailand. Rubber prices tend to rise due to various factors. For example, domestic buyers need rubber for their delivery. Moreover, the US and the EU economic confidence and the automotive industry of China expand well. Meanwhile, foreign futures markets tend to rise. However, the pressure factors are the concern about the COVID-19 outbreak with the increasing number of new cases worldwide, rubber tapping labor shortage issues, container shortage issues, oil price fluctuation, and the high freight rate. Moreover, there is a shortage of semiconductors used in the production of various chips. As a result, the automobile factory both within the country and around the world have to temporarily stop production from time to time.

In April 2021, Thailand exported 388,510.29 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), down 19.65% from the previous month and up 10.43% yoy, generating an export income of 20.2 billion baht, down 15.97% compared with the past month, up 33.91% yoy. In the tyre sector, in April 2021, Thailand exported 11.63 million units of all tyres, up 71.8% yoy, with an export value of 15.1 billion baht, up 60.27% YoY.

In April 2021, Thailand’s car production is 104,355 units, up 322.30% yoy, and down 35.79% compared with the previous month, including production for export of 59,684 units (57.19% of all production) and production for domestic sale 44,671 units (42.81% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sale in April 2021 is 58,132, down 21.76% compared with the previous month. From January to April 2021, Thailand’s car production is 570,188 units, up 19.19% yoy.