Global economic growth slowed down. Furthermore, the global economy confronted with several uncertainties caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lockdowns in China, supply chain disruptions, and economic recession. Many countries were unable to avoid economic recession; as a result, the global economic outlook slowed more than expected. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) might slash its global growth forecast for 2022. Meanwhile, Thailand’s economy continually expanded and tended to improve as domestic demand and foreign tourists increased due to the reopening of the country and aboard. Headline inflation tended to increase at a high level because oil prices and production costs increased. According to the result of the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision 3/2022, the Committee decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5% because the monetary policy committee was concerned about Thailand's economic recovery, assessed by external factors and oversea situations because if the policy interest rate was too different, it could affect the capital outflow. At the same time, it was necessary to monitor Thailand's economic recovery.
Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in April 2022 dropped to 86.2 from 89.2 as production costs increased, the baht depreciated, and domestic purchasing power slowed down due to inflation problems and household debt. Furthermore, the long weekend during the Songkran festival had an impact on decreasing production and a high freight rate. These factors affected economic activity. Therefore, the government should solve the inflation rate issue and should roll out measures to solve the cost of living issues. Furthermore, the government should expedite the rollout of remedial measures to help businesses that were affected by the impact of COVID-19. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index data was reported at 45.7 in April, up from 43.8 in the previous month.
In terms of Thailand’s international trade in April 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 782,146.10 million baht, up 19.27% YoY but dropped 15.20% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 856,252.57 million baht, up 21.49% YoY but down 7.19% compared with last month. In terms of trade balance in April 2022, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 74,106.47 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).
According to S&P Global, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in May 2022 dropped to 57.0 from 59.2 in the previous month due to the delay in the supply chain, labor shortage, and the slowdown in demand following the pressure of increasing energy prices, wages and transportation costs. As a result, the entrepreneurs faced high production costs. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI stood at 51.9 in May 2022, the same as the last month. Thailand’s manufacturing sector remained stable. Overall confidence remained positive. However, business confidence dropped as a result of the concerns about the pressure of the production cost factor, which will affect output over the next 12 months. The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending May 27, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices were volatile. Oil demand was expected to recover after China announced the end of a strict lockdown in Shanghai, effective June 1, 2022. On May 31, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 114.67 and 122.84 USD/barrel, respectively.
The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in May 2022 dropped from the previous month. Meanwhile, rubber prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) slightly changed. Lately, Thailand has had heavy rainfall for most of the month due to the influence of the southwest monsoon that began to prevail over the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand in the middle of the month, resulting in continuous rain in Thailand. It was also influenced by a cyclone that moved into the Bay of Bengal to cover the Indian coast at the beginning of the month. Furthermore, rubber leaf fall disease might occur after heavy rain. Besides, Thailand still faced high freight rates. However, the entrepreneurs still demand rubber output for delivery. In addition, the sale of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) increased, resulting in a rise in rubber demand. (NEV are electric vehicles consisting of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HEV), plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles (PHEV), battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), which were the new adjusted by the Chinese government)
At the World Rubber Summit 2022 on May 24–25, 2022, in Singapore, Mr. Nakorn Tangavirapat, the Governor of the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), stated that climate change affected agricultural productivity, including rubber. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) was concerned about the problem. Therefore, the RAOT aimed to be a leader in driving policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to sequester carbon, leading to carbon credit management in rubber plantations. Besides, it also increased Thailand’s competitiveness and trade opportunities. Recently, all agricultural sectors, including rubber, suffered from severe shortages and rising prices of chemical fertilizers. It would affect the number of rubber yields as well. In addition, the RAOT had taken urgent measures to solve the problems. In April 2022, Thailand exported 375,975.24 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 21.8 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 11.8 million units of all tyres with an export value of 18.8 billion baht.
In April 2022, Thailand’s car production was 117,786 units, down 31.79% compared with the previous month, including production for export of 58,671 units (49.81% of all production) and domestic sales of 59,115 units (50.19% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in April 2022 were 63,427 units, down 27.30% compared with the previous month.
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