Thailand's economic recovery is slow due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high crude oil prices, and rising production costs. Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak, including Omicron, is still rapidly spreading around Thailand. Recently, the COVID-19 infection cases have been around ten thousand per day. Furthermore, Thailand might confront high inflation rate and stagflation as well. Even though Thailand’s inflation rate is not high compared with other countries, the cost of living in Thailand is worrisome. Recently, Thailand's inflation rate in February 2022 rose to the highest level in more than 13 years, at 5.28%. However, the government has rolled out various measures such as the co-payment scheme, measures to help the energy section, peg the retail price of diesel fuel, etc. Meanwhile, major agricultural commodity prices have increased, and the volume of Thai exports still tends to expand continuously. As a result, it positively affects consumer confidence. Recently, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported the result of the 2nd/2022 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting on March 30, 2022, that the committee decided to remain the interest rate at 0.50 per year. Besides, the committee agreed to closely monitor the developments of the global and Thai financial markets as well as continuously push forward to improve the new FX ecosystem, especially encouraging SMEs to hedge against exchange rate volatility more.

February’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) dropped to 86.7 from 88.0 due to the rise of COVID-19 infection cases with Omicron variant. Moreover, the government has raised the COVID-19 alert level from level 3 to level 4, resulting in an economic slowdown. Other factors are supply disruption issues and rising production costs due to high raw material and energy prices following the world market price. Moreover, transportation costs increase. In addition, currency exchange is volatile. Besides, container shortage issues and high freight rate issues remain. These factors affect economic activity. Therefore, the government should take care of the inflation rate issue and roll out measures to solve the energy price issue. In addition, the government should also solve the cost of living issue. Furthermore, the government should expedite the rollout of remedial measures to help businesses that are affected by the impact of COVID-19. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index data in March 2022 dropped to 43.8 from 44.6. 

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in February 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 770,818.83 million baht, up 28.24% YoY and up 8.82% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 776,611.99 million baht, up 28.70% YoY but down 3.25% compared with the previous month. In terms of trade balance in February 2022, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 5,793.16 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).

According to S&P Global, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in March 2022 increased to 58.8 from 57.3 in the previous month as demand improved and supported overall growth. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI dropped to 51.8 in March 2022 from 52.5 in the previous month due to the COVID-19 (Omicron variant) outbreak impact.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has announced that crude oil inventories have dropped by 3.0 million barrels for the week ending March 25, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices rose from the previous month because the market is concerned that the oil supply will be tight after the Aramco oil company in the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, was attacked by Houthis. On March 28, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 113.90 and 120.65 USD/barrel, respectively.

 

In March 2022, rubber prices increased compared with the previous month. Due to the non-tapping season, climate change, and rubber leaf fall disease outbreaks in the south and east of Thailand, fewer rubber yields are available on the market. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic and the concern over the Russia-Ukraine conflict are the pressure factors that caused the global economic recovery to slowdown and also negatively affected Thailand’s economy and exports. In February 2022, Thailand exported 424,050 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 23.2 billion baht. In the tyre sector, in February 2022, Thailand exported 12.8 million units of all tyres with an export value of 19.4 billion baht.

In February 2022, Thailand’s car production was 155,660 units, including productions for export of 82,300 units (52.87% of all production) and domestic sales of 73,360 units (47.13% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in February 2022 were 74,489 units, up 7.25% compared with the previous month, up 26.3% YoY.