The global economic recovery in 2022 is forecast to be positive, especially at the end of 2021, which is expected more tourists and events. However, in late November, there has been the emergence of ‘Omicron’, the new variant of the COVID-19 outbreak. It is the risk factor to global economic recovery and the global inflation recovery because the new variant COVID-19 detected occur during the global economy suffering from supply chain disruption, accelerating inflation problem, and labor shortage. Moreover, it might cause Public Debt around the world to increase. The economy in various countries confronts a long-term slowdown. However, it is necessary to monitor the policy plans of the significant trade countries. The global growth forecast in 2021 might be slightly revised down from the former 5.9%.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has forecast Thailand’s economic growth in 2021 at 1.2%, its Current Account at -2.5%, and the tourist sector is still not recovering. However, overall, the export is positive with expected to grow at 16.8%. In 2022, Thailand’s economy is expected to grow at 3.5%-4.5%; meanwhile, the world economy is estimated at 4.6%-4.8%. However, export is the key factor to drive Thailand’s economy in the next year, as well as the domestic consumption. The government should speed up vaccinations to help the tourism sector recovery. Recently, the new variant of COVID-19, ‘Omicron’, has been detected in foreign countries. As for the severe effect of the outbreak, it needs to be observed further. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) continuously monitors the long-term effects.

October’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) up to 82.1 from 79.0 due to the easing of the COVID-19 outbreak situation, decreasing infected cases, increasing vaccinated, and better economic activities. Meanwhile, the increase of the raw material and energy prices affects the production cost and shipping cost. Furthermore, many areas confront flood issues. These factors affect economic activities. Therefore, the government should expedite to solve the flood problem as well as the energy issue and roll out the domestic economic rehabilitation and stimulus measures. Furthermore, the government should expedite creating herd immunity, especially for the provinces that prepare to welcome the foreign tourists following the country opening plan on 1 November 2021, etc. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in October 2021, Thailand’s export income value is 750,015.83 million baht, up 24.93% YoY and down 1.39% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value is 772,539.96 million baht, up 43.33% YoY and up 2.97% compared with the previous month. In terms of trade balance in October 2021, Thailand recorded a trade balance deficit of 22,524.13 million baht (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in November 2021 dropped to 58.3 from 58.4 in the previous month due to companies' attempts to expand competitiveness. Meanwhile, the employment rate slows down due to labor shortage issues, and high energy prices. As a result, the cost of production increases. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI drop to 50.6 in November 2021 from 50.9 in the previous month. Thailand’s manufacturing sector tends to slightly slowdown compering with the last month due to the easing of COVID-19 outbreak measures. There is still price pressure because of high production costs. However, it is necessary to monitor the economic recovery during the first period to estimate the growth in the future.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have dropped 0.9 million barrels to 433.1 million barrels for the week ending of 26 November 2021. Overall, crude oil prices drop compared with the previous month after the market worried that the new variant COVID-19 outbreak, Omicron, will pressure the economic recovery and affect the oil demand. Recently, the US, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the EU have banned the entry flights from South Africa to control the outbreak. On 26 November 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 68.15 and 72.72 USD/barrel.

In November 2021, rubber prices and rubber futures market prices slightly increase compared with the previous month, supported by the rubber delivery demand of domestic buyers, and the rubber price stabilization measures from the government. Moreover, the southern part of Thailand still has continuous rain, which affects rubber tapping. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 outbreak, container shortage issue, and high energy price cause raw material and shipment costs to increase. Recently, the outbreak of new leaf fall disease has occurred in the Eastern region of Thailand. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has expedited the inspection and control. Furthermore, RAOT has already sprayed chemicals to eliminate and prevent the spread to reduce the impacts on rubber farmers. The Cabinet has appointed Mr. Kuldej Puapattanakul as the new president of the Rubber Authority of Thailand to drive the RAOT. Besides, the Cabinet Meeting has approved the 3rd phase of the rubber farmer income insurance scheme with more than 10,000 million baht to more than 1.8 million farmers around the country. Moreover, the government has prepared to pay the first two installments of income compensation to rubber farmers within December 2021. At the same time, the RAOT has implemented parallel projects and measures to solve rubber price problems, such as the project to slow down the sale of rubber, projects to support credit for entrepreneurs and farmers' institutions, etc.

In October 2021, Thailand exported 421,221.37 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 9.38% from the previous month and up 17.37% YoY, generating an export income of 22.3 billion baht, up 8.66% compared with the past month, up 46.76% YoY. In the tyre sector, in October 2021, Thailand exported 13.06 million units of all tyres, down 0.68% YoY, with an export value of 18.4 billion baht, up 13.61% YoY.

In October 2021, Thailand’s car production is 154,038 units, up 3.27% YoY, and up 10% compared with the previous month due to receiving the semiconductors and automotive parts from the trade partner countries that have already loosened their lockdown measures. Thailand’s car production includes production for export by 81,577 units (57.87% of all production) and domestic sales by 64,894 units (42.13% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sale in October 2021 is 64,462 units, down 13% YoY. From January to October 2021, Thailand’s car production is 1,365,984 units, up 22.89% YoY.