Global Economic activity is facing a slowdown, with consequences of the living-cost crisis, tight money in many countries, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.7% from 2.9% and signaled the risk of recession due to tight monetary policy, which aims to slow down inflation. Furthermore, global tight financial conditions caused by the central banks continue to hike interest rates and the rapid appreciation of the US dollar create vulnerabilities and pose risks to financial stability in the global financial environment.

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is monitoring three risk factors, including inflation, economic slowdown, and wars. In addition, the BOT emphasizes its gradual monetary policy. The Thai economy is projected to continue growing at 3.3% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023, driven mainly by tourism and private consumption. Furthermore, global inflation increases. However, each country differs in terms of economy and inflation.

Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in October 2022 rise to 93.1 from 91.8 in August due to the positive impact of the expansion of the manufacturing sector. It reflects the increased domestic demand. Furthermore, the tourism sector shows signs of recovery. Moreover, the government's energy policies and the issue of semiconductor shortages have improved. However, Thailand is still dealing with floods in many provinces. Besides, loan interest rates tend to increase along with the uncertain global economy. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index was reported at 47.7 in October 2022, up from 46.4 in September 2022.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in September 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 888,371.08 million baht, up 16.44% YoY and up 3.16% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 929,731.86 million baht, up 15.62% YoY but down 7.45% compared with last month. Thailand's trade balance in September 2022 recorded a deficit of 624,784.60 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).

According to S&P Global, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 50.4 in October 2022 from 52.0 the previous month due to sagging demand and the slowdown in raw material purchasing. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI stood at 51.6 in October 2022, down from 55.7 the previous month. In September 2022, the manufacturing sector gradually recovered as demand fell, reflecting a slowdown in global economic growth due to global inflationary conditions.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories decreased by 6.5 million barrels for the week ending October 28, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices declined because the market was concerned about a recession after the US and EU economies slowed down. Moreover, China operated its lockdown measures, including in Wuhan, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, which might affect the world crude oil demand. On October 31, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at 86.53 and 94.83 USD/barrel, respectively. The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in October 2022 were slightly up from the previous month, but the rubber prices at the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) decreased. The weather of northern and northeastern Thailand were entering winter; as a result, rubber output began to gradually reach the market. Meanwhile, heavy rains in many areas of southern Thailand have reduced rubber output. Furthermore, China announced re-operating its lockdown measure due to the increase in COVID-19 cases. In addition, foreign buyers slow down their purchasing. In September 2022, Thailand exported 430,550 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 23.5 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 9.55 million units of all tyres for a total value of 18.8 billion baht.

In September 2022, Thailand’s car production was 179,237 units, up 4.37% compared with the previous month and up 27.99% YoY, including production for export of 106,190 units (59.25% of all production) and domestic sales of 73,047 units (40.75% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in September 2022 were 74,150 units, up 8.71% compared with the previous month and up 15.64% YoY.