Global economic growth continues to slow down and will intensify amid the Russia-Ukraine war, soaring inflation and interest rates, and a slowdown in China's economy. The Federal Reserve (FED) signaled that the interest rate would be raised further to tamp down inflation, causing the economy and labor market to slow down. However, it is necessary to monitor if the interest rate will increase by 0.75–1.00% during the meeting held on September 20–21, 2022. Meanwhile, the EU still confronts uncertainty in the energy sector due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In terms of crude oil, natural gas, and fossil fuel issues, the EU leaders are considering various solutions, such as fuel allocation and separating electricity prices from the soaring gas prices, etc. If the EU does not accelerate its resource management well, it might face an energy shortage as well as a severe winter season. Thailand's economic outlook tends to recover, positively affected by the tourism, construction, and real estate sectors. At the same time, purchasing power is still weak, and the labor market in the first half of the year had a slow recovery, indicated by the unemployment and latent unemployment rates of around 1.3 million people. Thailand's National Wage Committee voted to raise the minimum wage for the year 2022, and it has been submitted to the cabinet for final approval and is expected to take effect on October 1, 2022. The minimum wage has increased by approximately 3-7% during the past two years. On August 10, 2022, the Monetary Policy Committee reported the result of the 4th meeting that the committee voted 6 over 1 to increase the policy interest rate by 0.25% per year, from 0.5% per year to 0.75% per year, effective immediately. Meanwhile, one voted to increase the policy interest rate by 0.50% per year. As the cabinet has approved the fifth phase of the 50:50 co-payment scheme (Kon La Kreung) starting in September 2022, it is expected to help with daily expenses as well as the cost of living, especially food expenses. However, the government should further support other expenses which will affect the cost of living, such as the deduction of water and electricity prices, etc. In addition, the cost of production that might affect consumers must be closely monitored. They also need to be on the lookout for flooding situations that may occur in many areas due to heavy rain.

Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in July 2022 rose to 89.0 from 86.3 in June due to the positive impact of the expansion of the manufacturing sector as a result of increasing demand for industrial products and Baht depreciation. However, the effect of the cost of production remained. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index data was reported at 45.5 in July 2022, up from 44.3 in June 2022.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in July 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 829,028.81 million baht, up 17.00% YoY but down 8.63% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 968,939.86 million baht, up 38.66% YoY and up 0.26% compared with last month. In terms of trade balance in July 2022, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 139,911.05 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).

According to S&P Global, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) fell to 51.5 in August 2022 from 52.2 the previous month as demand continued to fall as a result of rising inflation, supply chain disruption, increasing economic uncertainty, the rising cost of living, and declining consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI stood at 53.7 in August 2022, up from 52.4 the previous month. In July 2022, the manufacturing sector improved; however, employment declined.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories increased by 5.9 hundred thousand barrels for the week ending August 26, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices were slightly lower because the market was concerned about a recession after the Federal Reserve (FED) signaled that interest rates would be raised further. There are also concerns over the slowdown economy in China. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has signaled that OPEC is ready to reduce production capability to support oil prices. It will be reduced in line with the increasing trend of Iran's exports. In addition, the market is still concerned about the tight gas supply after Gazprom Company still stopped exporting natural gas to European countries that refuse to pay in rubles currency and the company also reduced its exports to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. On August 31, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 89.55 and 96.49 USD/barrel, respectively.

The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in August 2022 were down from the previous month and are in line with the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). Thailand's rubber exports tend to slow as demand for rubber gloves falls due to the relaxation of COVID-19. As a result, rubber stock remains, causing a drop in purchasing. Furthermore, Thailand will have more rainfall than usual and most of the area will have thunderstorms of around 60–80% with heavy rain in many areas, which may cause flash floods. Moreover, the world still confronts the semiconductor shortage issue even though the freight rate has improved. In July 2022, Thailand exported 426,943.96 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 25.1 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 11.36 million units of all tyres with an export value of 19.9 billion baht.

In July 2022, Thailand’s car production was 142,958 units, down 0.04% compared with the previous month but up 16.07% YoY, including production for export of 71,387 units (49.94% of all production) and domestic sales of 71,571 units (50.06% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in July 2022 were 64,033 units, down 5.77% compared with the previous month but up 22.10% YoY due to the easing of the government's lockdown and the reopening of the country for tourists and investors.