In September, Thailand's rubber prices are still volatile and slightly changed due to raining in rubber producing countries, including Thailand, which has rained about 60-70 percent of the Southern region. Besides, most rubber tapping labors returned to their countries. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which is the obstacle of rubber tapping and Phytophthora leaf fall prevention, rubber supply out to the market in less quantities. Furthermore, the crude oil price is volatile, and the demand for rubber gloves and elastic products is still high. However, the economic recession and the COVID-19 pandemic concerns might be the two factors that pressure rubber prices. September's average RSS3 price announced by Central Rubber Market in Songkhla stood at 56.91 Baht/kg, up 13.54% from the previous month due to the following factors.

In 2020, Thailand’s economy tends to shrink. Even though the domestic demand, including consumption and private investment, tends to rise, the labor market is still weak, as well as employment and income, which take time to recover. These factors affect the debt-servicing capacity of households, which then will affect the private consumption sector. September’s Inflation stands at -0.70%, which continually down seven months in a row. The recovery between the economic sector and each entrepreneur is very different. Economy restructuring, business model adjustment, and labor skill development should relate to the new normal after the Covid-19 pandemic to help economic recovery with sustainability.

In August, Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) up to 84.0 from 82.5 in July due to the loosening of the lockdown measure, which makes many domestic business activities back on their operations. The production sector has expanded following the increasing demand. Meanwhile, consumers are also concern about the weak economy. Therefore they are more careful about spending. In terms of entrepreneurs, they are still concern about liquidity, credit, and the second round of the Covid-19 outbreaks. According to the result of the 6th Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 23, 2020, the committee has agreed to stand the interest rate as 0.50% per year, effected immediately.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in August 2020, Thailand’s export income value 635,219.53 million baht, down 5.43% yoy, and up 9.59% compared with July 2020. From January to August 2020, Thailand’s export income value 4,777,201.74 million baht, down 8.34% yoy. In terms of trade balance in August 2020, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 129,836.04 million baht, up 120.94% from a trade surplus of 58,765.04 million baht in August 2019 (Ministry of Commerce, 2020).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US up to 53.2 in September from 53.1 in August. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI up to 49.9 in September from 49.7 in August.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices slightly changed. On September 30, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 40.22 and 40.95 USD/barrel, respectively. The market remains concerned about global oil demand due to the increase of Covid-19 patients. Besides, the amount of crude oil tends to increase because Libya plans to add its oil production capacity. However, the amount of crude oil in the US tends to decrease because of the impact of Tropical Storm Beta, which moved up the edge of the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced the crude oil inventories of the U.S. have decreased around 2 million barrels for the week ending September 25, 2020, after the U.S. crude oil imports decline.

In August 2020, Thailand exported 333,259.36 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 6.02% from the previous month, and down 4.35% yoy, generating an export income of 12.7 billion baht, up 8.21% compared with the past month, down 16.77% yoy. In the tyre sector, in August 2020, Thailand exported 13.51 million units of all tyres, up 11.85% yoy, with an export value of 16.3 billion baht, up 5.45% YoY.

The amount of Thailand's car production in August 2020 is 117,253 units, down 29.52% yoy, including 51,441 units or 43.87% at export and 65,812 units or 56.13% at domestic sales. The car production for exports and domestic sales decreased by 38.28% yoy and 20.73% yoy, respectively. However, the amount of Thailand's car production in August 2020 increased by 31.25% compared with the previous month because most of the automotive entrepreneurs resumed their operations. From January to August 2020, Thai produced 812,721 of cars, down 42.08%yoy.