The global economic outlook might slow down compared to last year as the world economic growth forecast has been revised to 4.1% from 4.3%. Many countries are still confronted with the new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. According to the report, the number of COVID-19 deaths decreased; however, the outbreak rapidly spread, increasing the number of infected cases. In order to solve the rising inflation issue, the Federal Reserve (FED) has signaled to increase the interest rate in March 2022 and insists on canceling bond purchases following the quantitative easing (QE) measure in March 2022. As a result, it will support the USD's strength. In addition, Thailand’s inflation increases mainly due to supply factors but is still concentrated in some product groups, especially energy prices and some kinds of fresh food. However, it is critical to keep an eye on world energy prices as well as increase the prices of goods and services in the country. It’s quite challenging to drive the economy nowadays as the development of innovation and technology have taken place by leaps and bounds, along with changes in human living behaviors. As a result, every sector, including citizens, should be concerned about sustainability, digital technology, and adaptation. Overall, Thailand’s economy in 2022 is projected to gradually recover. However, it is necessary to monitor the reaction of the Monetary Policy Committee to the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision that might increase interest rates more than four times. Furthermore, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will hold the 1st/2022 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting on February 9, 2022, and it is projected that they will maintain the interest rate at 0.50 per year.

December’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) rose to 86.1 from 85.4 due to the easing of the COVID-19 outbreak prevention measures. Moreover, many economic activities are back to operating, including the production sector, trade sector, and domestic travel. Furthermore, there is increasing public spending and a weakening baht. At the same time, the COVID-19 situation is uncertain, especially with the rise of Omicron cases. Moreover, the rising in raw materials and energy prices affect both the production and transportation costs. In addition, there are container shortage issues and high freight rates. These factors affect economic activity. Therefore, the government should expedite to rolling out of the remedial measures to lessen the effects of production costs increasing. Besides, the government should expedite vaccine boosters. The government should improve and prepare the public health system along with economic measures. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in December 2021, Thailand’s export income value was 810,711.85 million baht, up 34.54% YoY and up 3.48% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 833,237.42 million baht, up 44.36% YoY and up 9.68% compared with the previous month. In terms of trade balance in December 2021, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 22,525.57 million baht. For the year 2021, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 6,979.61 million baht (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in January 2022 dropped to 55.5 from 55.7 in the previous month due to inflation in the US service sector, supply chain disruption, and labor shortages as a result of the rising COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI rose to 51.7 in January 2022 from 49.5 in the previous month. In December 2021, Thailand’s manufacturing sector has expanded because domestic producers have the confidence to increase their raw material purchases to prevent the raw material shortage issue. Therefore, the raw material stock rate has risen. However, there is pressure on prices due to the rising cost of raw materials and transportation. Besides, many people are concerned about the Omicron outbreak. According to IHS Markit, Thailand’s GDP forecast in 2022 will increase by 3.4%.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that crude oil inventories have dropped by 1 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels for the week ending January 28, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices increased compared with the previous month. On January 31, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 88.15 and 91.21 USD/barrel, respectively.

In January 2022, rubber prices and rubber futures market prices were volatile and slightly changed. Thailand confronts labor shortage issues, rubber leaf fall disease outbreaks, and container shortages. Furthermore, there is a full cargo ship problem that needs advanced reservations. The new route of the China-Lao train is an alternative for entrepreneurs or importers and exporters. However, there are still factors to consider, such as the shipping cost comparison, the availability of services and customs formalities, international law, etc. As for the rubber leaf fall disease, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has expedited the inspection and control. Furthermore, RAOT has already sprayed chemicals to eliminate and prevent the spread of the disease. However, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) needs to take care of not only farmers but also mid-stream and upstream rubber industries by preventing them from having raw material shortage issues. If a natural rubber shortage occurs, it might affect framers. Therefore, rubber management should aim to build a balance between usage and yield. Besides, the rubber yield outlook is not enough to meet the global demand, and the prices tend to be positive. Therefore, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) will implement measures to enhance any matters and innovations that help increase rubber latex.

In December 2021, Thailand exported 443,625.11 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 9.84% from the previous month and up 14.83% YoY, generating an export income of 23.9 billion baht, up 11.19% compared with the past month and up 31.84% YoY. In the tyre sector, in December 2021, Thailand exported 13.15 million units of all tyres, up 17.68% YoY, with an export value of 18.4 billion baht, up 40.71% YoY.

In December 2021, Thailand’s car production was 154,368 units, down 6.64% compared with the previous month, but up 7.89% YoY. Thailand’s car production includes production for export of 77,592 units (50.26% of all production) and domestic sales of 76,776 units (49.74% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in December 2021 were 86,145 units, the highest in the last 12 months. From January to December 2021, Thailand’s car production was 1,685,705 units, up 18.12% YoY. The Automotive Industry Club (AIC) of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has estimated Thailand’s car production in 2022 will be 1,800,000 units, more than the last year's 114,295 units (6.78%).