The global economy has approved, driven by economic stimulus measures and the COVID-19 vaccine distribution among influential countries around the world. However, the recovery is different in each country, and there are various risk factors. Meanwhile, the US economy is gradually recovering, driven by various supporting factors such as economic stimulus measures with a credit limit of 1.9 trillion USD and supporting measures for the household sector. Meanwhile, China's economy is likely to continue to recover, with the first quarter of 2021 GDP growing at the highest record. Moreover, China's economy is expected to continue recovery. Thailand’s economy in 2021 is projected to slow down due to the impacts of the 3^rd wave of COVID-19 outbreak and drought. However, there are imports and stimulus measures that help to mitigate the impact. Thailand’s policy rate is projected to remain 0.50% per year due to uncertainty; furthermore, the household sector is further affected by the new wave of the Covid-19 outbreak. However, it will depend on the outcome of the 3rd/2021 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on May 5, 2021. 

March’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) increase to 87.3 from 85.1 due to the increase of the domestic and foreign demand, which is beneficial to the manufacturing sector. Moreover, the government announced the loosening of restrictions of the COVID-19 control measures as a result the economic activity increase. Furthermore, the government’s economic stimulus measures help to urge domestic spending and consumption. However, Thai entrepreneurs still confront with the container shortage issue, the high crude oil prices, and raw material prices, resulting in the added cost. In addition, baht appreciation affects the price competitiveness of Thai exporters. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in March 2021, Thailand’s export income value 719,050.84 million baht, up 4.05% yoy. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value 708,095.57 million baht, up 9.52%. In terms of trade balance in March 2021, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 10,955.27 million baht. For the first quarter of 2021, Thailand’s export income value 1,907,932.14 million baht, up 0.17%. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value 1,920,028.82 million baht with a record of a trade deficit of 12,096.68 million baht (Ministry of Commerce, 2021). 

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US up to 60.5 in April 2021 from 59.1 in March 2021. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI up to 50.7 in April 2021 from 48.8 in March 2021 due to new orders and yields increasing. It reflects that the raw material stock and the delivery date of the raw material producer have positive impacts on the general index even though domestic employment in the production sector decrease. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have increased 0.09 million barrels to 493.1 million barrels for the week ending on 23 April 2021. Many countries start announcing their international travel policy (Travel Bubble) to boost the tourism sector. Singapore and Hong Kong announced a travel policy between the two countries, without quarantine, starting May 26, 2021, after it was postponed from the last year. The OPEC+ believe that the world’s crude oil demand will recover even though the number of COVID-19 infections still increases in many countries. However, the market has been under pressure from the progress of the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the nuclear deal between the United States and Iran. On 28 April 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 63.86 and 67.27 USD/barrel.

In April 2021, rubber yield drops due to the closure tapping season. In terms of rubber prices, it declines in line with the international futures market. In terms of pressure factors, there are concerns about the Covid-19 outbreak with many infected numbers increasing around the world, container shortage issues, and the high freight rate. Moreover, many industries have been hit by the global chip shortage, including the automotive industry. It will result in increased taxes levied on inflation. As a result, various industries will slow down. However, the Rubber Authority of Thailand has adopted measures to stabilize rubber prices by releasing 105,000 tons of rubber stocks from the government scheme before new rubber yields will be released to the market.

In March 2021, Thailand exported 483,526.74 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 16.34% from the previous month and up 29.89% yoy, generating an export income of 24 billion baht, up 18.8% compared with the past month, up 49.21% yoy. In the tyre sector, in March 2021, Thailand exported 14.21 million units of all tyres, up 33.54% yoy, with an export value of 17.6 billion baht, up 26.25% YoY.

The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has continued to manage the rubber stock under the farmers' institute potential development project, and the project to build the stabilize rubber prices by conducting the auction of 104,763.35 tons of rubber smoked sheets, STR 20, and others (it is old rubber stock with more than 9 years old and worn). The winning bidder will have to buy rubber from the Farmers Institute for 1 time the amount of auctioned rubber. The project will help to add more than 100,000 tons of orders within 1 year from signing the contract date. As for the rubber stock released this time, the company will start hauling the rubber stock in late April 2021 and will be completed in May 2021.

In March 2021, Thailand’s car production is 162,515 units, up 10.70% yoy., and up 4.71% compared with the previous month, including production for export of 96,583 units (59.43% of all production) and production for domestic sale 65,932 units (40.57% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sale in March 2021 is 74,295, up 26.01% compared with the previous month. From January to March 2021, Thailand’s car production is 465,833 units, up 2.68% yoy.