Thailand's economic outlook in 2021 is projected to grow 3.0% and gradually recover. Even though Thailand's economy is affected by the impact of the new wave of the Covid-19, it is supported by the economic recovery of the export sector, which expand following trade partners. According to the outcome of the 2nd/2021 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 24 March 2021, the committee agreed to remain the policy rate at 0.50% per year, effected immediately because Thailand's economy still confronts with high uncertainty. Moreover, finance costs are low, and the distribution is not cover the country. Furthermore, the household sector is further affected by the new wave of the Covid-19 outbreak. In terms of Thailand's long-term government bond yields, it rises in tandem with the US Treasury. The continual implementation of the government measures as well as the coordination of the related agencies is significant to the economic recovery, especially the monetary policy, which should be expedite implementing and supporting to provide assistance for affected entrepreneurs and to distribute liquidity to those who are affected. Moreover, there are other significant measures such as debt restructuring, business reorganization, business model adjustment, and skills development.

February’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) increased to 83.5 from 85.1 due to the expansion of the manufacturer factor following the increasing of the domestic and foreign demand, the loosening of the Covid-19 prevention measures, and the remedy measures for those affected by the new wave of the Covid-19 outbreak. However, entrepreneurs still confront with the container shortage issue and high freight rate. As a result, the cost of transportation rises. Moreover, baht appreciation causes price competition between exporters. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in February 2021, Thailand’s export income value 601,507.35 million baht, down 3.87% yoy and down 2.41% compared with the previous month. In terms of trade balance in February 2021, Thailand recorded a trade deficit of 8,528.15 million baht. From January - February 2021, Thailand recorded a trade deficit of 23,051.96 million baht.  (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US up to 59.1 in March 2021 from 58.6 in February 2021. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI up to 48.8 in March 2021 from 47.2 in February 2021 because the export order increases for the first time since February 2020. So Thailand manufacturers drop their domestic production 3 months in a row, reflecting the new order and productivity. In terms of the delivery date of raw material and employment in March, most of them do not change.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have increased 1.9 million barrels to 502.7 million barrels for the week ending on 19 March 2021. Crude oil prices are volatile due to the new wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in the EU. Therefore, the results of the OPEC+ meeting on 1 April 2021 will determine the production capacity. During 22-26 March 2021, oil prices are supported by Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by a huge container ship incident on 23 March 2021. As a result, more than 200 ships are affected. On 29 March 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 60.97 and 64.57 USD/barrel.

In March 2021, rubber yield drop due to the closure tapping season; as a result, a small amount of rubber yield out to the market. In terms of rubber prices, it rises due to positive factors such as the demand to deliver rubber of the entrepreneurs, baht depreciation, and the rising of crude oil prices. In the international futures markets, rubber prices tend to be positive in the medium term. In terms of pressure factors, there are concerns about the Covid-19 outbreak and Sea freight. Moreover, there is an incident that Egypt's Suez Canal was blocked by an Evergreen ship that had blocked sea freight around the world for over a week. Furthermore, the exporters also confront with the container shortage problem as well as the high freight rate. However, rubber prices in the first quarter of 2021 are still at a positive level. According to the rising rubber demand, rubber supply is expected to increase following the expansion of rubber gloves. Meanwhile, rubber gloves export improve due to the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) approval. Moreover, China is continually developing its automotive industry.

In February 2021, Thailand exported 415,616.55 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 25.61% from the previous month and down 8.07% yoy, generating an export income of 20.3 billion baht, up 24.88% compared with the past month, up 7.27% yoy. In the tyre sector, in February 2021, Thailand exported 12 million units of all tyres, up 4.65% yoy, with an export value of 14.6 billion baht, down 0.27% YoY.

According to the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), Mr. Nakorn Phakwiraphat, the Governor of RAOT, said that Mr. Chalermchai Si-on, the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, has assigned all related agencies to expedite resolving the problems affecting the smallholders, especially the low rubber prices problem. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has prepared a business model or 3-legged model to use between the RAOT, entrepreneurs, and smallholders to resolve the low rubber price problem and to enhance the strength of all related parties. The RAOT will be the core or the first leg providing subsidize credit. Meanwhile, the smallholders will be the second leg providing rubber yield for the factories. Lastly, the entrepreneurs or factories will be the third leg producing productivity. All related parties will together help to resolve the rubber price problem and to enhance strengthen both smallholders and entrepreneurs.

In February 2021, Thailand’s car production is 155,200 units (up 3.05%), including production for export of 88,315 units and production for domestic sale 66,885 units. Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sale in February 2021 is 58.960, up 6.8% compared with the previous month. According to the Bangkok International Motor Show 2021, from 24 March to 4 April 2021, it is expected to boost car sales the same as the 2020 event.