The global economy remains slow due to the large global markets' slow growth. The risk factors for the global and Thailand economies in 2023 are geopolitical risk, a protracted Russia-Ukraine war, and the US-China technology war, which include trade sanctions and various policies, etc. As the growth of the world's major markets slows down, their purchasing power will be reduced. Meanwhile, China's economy needs to be monitored after the re-opening measure. China’s trade, investment, manufacturing, and tourism may grow more than in the past year. Meanwhile, tourism and foreign investment are the main opportunities in Thailand. However, commodity prices remain high. Moreover, interest rates and Thai baht (compared with the US dollar) are the factors that affect Thailand’s economy. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor the situation.  Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the global GDP will drop to 2.9% in 2023 but increase to 3.1% in 2024.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in January 2023, Thailand’s export income value was 700,126.74 million baht, down 0.93% YoY and down 9.82% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 871,430.06 million baht, up 9.44% YoY and up 5.87% compared with last month. Thailand's trade balance in January 2023 recorded a deficit of 171,303.32 million baht (Ministry of Commerce, 2023).

According to S&P Global, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 47.3 in February 2023 from 46.9 the previous month. In January 2023, Thailand’s PMI stood at 54.8, up from 54.5 the previous month. In January 2023, Thailand’s manufacturing sector expanded due to improved demand, and increased domestic production of products. Meanwhile, foreign demand for products produced in Thailand declined due to inflation and rising production costs. This reflects the fact that the pressure on raw material prices and transportation costs will affect customers. Furthermore, it will affect rising product prices.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels for the week ending February 24, 2023. Overall, crude oil prices will increase due to the projection of increased crude oil exports to China. However, the market keeps an eye on the crude oil supply in the global market, which might decrease after Russia plans to reduce its production capability in March 2023. On February 28, 2023, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices stood at 77.05 and 83.89 USD/barrel, respectively.

The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in February 2023 increased compared with the previous month due to the increase in car sales. Meanwhile, foreign futures market prices slightly dropped. The market was concerned about powerful countries’ economies, and the protracted Ukraine-Russia war caused an economic slowdown. In January 2023, Thailand exported 434,930 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 19.1 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 10.03 million units of all tyres for a total value of 16.7 billion baht.

In January 2023, Thailand’s car production was 157,844 units, up 4.02% YoY but down 0.48% compared with the previous month, including production for export of 91,532 units (57.99% of all production), up 7.43% YoY and domestic sales of 66,312 units (42.01% of all production). In 2022, Thailand produced 1,883,515 cars, up 11.73%YoY. Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in January 2023 were 65,579 units, down 20.80% YoY due to semiconductor chip shortages in some car models.