Thailand's economic outlook in 2021 is expected to expand 2.5% - 3.5% and gradually recover due to the global economy and trade volume recovery, driving forces from government spending, and the domestic demand expansion of the private sector. According to the outcome of the 1st/2021 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 3 February 2021, the committee agreed to remain the policy rate at 0.50% per year, effected immediately to boost economic recovery, which is uncertain. The impact of the new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak on Thailand's economy is not severe as the first wave of the pandemic since the less strict pandemic control measures comparing with the former one. Besides, Thailand’s economy is urged by government measures and export recovery. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that the COVID-19 vaccine would help the global economy to grow by 5.5%. Therefore, the government should prepare policy packages to handle with economic outlook and challenges in all situations needed.

January’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) dropped to 83.5 from 85.8 due to the new wave of COVID-19 pandemic, the slowdown recovery of domestic purchasing power, and container shortage. Trade and investment situation in Thailand remain highly uncertain; therefore, Thai government must expedite to solve the problem and build confidence of foreign investors as well as trading partners. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in January 2021, Thailand’s export income value 587,373.95 million baht, down 0.09% yoy and down 2.56% compared with December 2020. In terms of trade balance in January 2021, Thailand recorded a trade deficit of 14,523.81 million baht, down 71.18%yoy (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US down to 58.6 in February 2021 from 59.2 in January 2021. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI down to 47.2 in February 2021 from 49.0 in January 2021 due to order decreasing, the slowdown of the production sector in the first quarter of 2021, and stock decreasing.  

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories have increased 1.3 million barrels to 463 million barrels for the week ending on 19 February 2021. Crude oil prices down after the market forecasted that excess demand tends to rise because OPEC+ may increase their production capacity in April 2021 due to high crude oil prices. OPEC+ hold the meeting to decide about the production capacity on 4 March 2021. On 26 February 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 61.50 and 66.13 USD/barrel.

In February 2021, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise in line with international futures markets. In terms of positive factors, the prices from the Japan futures market rise the highest in the past two months. Furthermore, rubber yield decrease due to the coming of closure tapping season. Moreover, Asian stock market closed positive after the US rolled out its economic stimulus measures. However, there might be speculation in the futures market. Rubber glove price rise. Meanwhile, exports remain tight. Thailand still faced container shortage problem and baht appreciation. Many countries around the world have already started vaccinating their people against the COVID-19. Major industrial countries are expected to have mass immunity by mid-2021 which will support the global economic recovery. The UK has already vaccinated more than 12 million doses. 

In January 2021, Thailand exported 330,883.21 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), down 14.35% from the previous month and down 24.21% yoy, generating an export income of 16.2 billion baht, down 10.60% compared with the past month, down 8.33% yoy. In the tyre sector, in January 2021, Thailand exported 11.46 million units of all tyres, up 7.26% yoy, with an export value of 14 billion baht, up 3.78% YoY.

The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) had attempted to pull out latex from the market by proceeding with the latex management project since the end of January 2021. They suggested agricultural cooperatives slow down latex sales and stock it instead, then waiting for the market demand; for example, when the tapping season closed, the price is high or reasonable. The Rubber Authority of Thailand had prepared tanks for collecting latex and chemicals to extend the latex storage time to maintain its quality for 1-2 months. Moreover, agricultural cooperatives can lend money from Rubber Development Fund, followed by Section 49 (3) to use as funds in purchasing latex to store. The project aims to pull out latex from the market at least 200,000 tons. The project has already been implemented in Nakhon Si Thammarat, with agricultural cooperatives participating and receiving more than 90 tanks for collecting latex.

In January 2021, Thailand’s car production is 148,118 units, including production for export of 85,797 units and production for domestic sale 62,321 units. Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sale in January 2021 is 55,208, down 46.96% compared with the previous month due to customers’ worry about the new wave of COVID-19 outbreak.