In November 2021, Thailand’s economy tends to continue recovery, improving from the last month. Exports increase following the trading partners’ demand, and the supply disruption problem is improving. The number of foreign tourists increased after the re-opening of the country to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the inflation rate temporarily rises, mostly affected by energy prices, especially oil prices. Because of the risk of rising inflation, the Federal Reserve (FED) has accelerated the QE tapering measure. Besides, the slowing down of the world economy, especially in China, might lead to a world economic recession. The new variant of the COVID-19 outbreak, Omicron, is a significant risk to the overall global economic outlook. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the situation closely. Government measures and implementations are important to economic recovery. It consists of the pandemic containment measures which will support the economic activities to recover. Moreover, fiscal measures should enhance the economic recovery by focusing on generating income and preparing plans to improve economic potential.

November’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) up to 85.4 from 82.1 due to the easing of the COVID-19 outbreak situation, decreasing infected cases and increasing vaccination. Moreover, economic activities get improved since there is an opening of tourist pilot areas for foreign tourists such as Bangkok, Krabi, Phang Nga, and Phuket. Meanwhile, the rising of the raw material and energy prices affects both the production and shipping costs. These factors affect economic activities. Therefore, the government should expedite to roll out the remedy measures to lessen the effects of production costs increasing and to solve the labor shortage issue and the illegal immigration issue. In terms of Thailand’s international trade in November 2021, Thailand’s export income value is 783,424.56 million baht, up 33.52% YoY and up 4.45% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value is 759,679.36 million baht, up 28.90% YoY and down 1.66% compared with the previous month. In terms of trade balance in November 2021, Thailand recorded a trade balance surplus of 23,745.20 million baht (Ministry of Commerce, 2021).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in December 2021 dropped to 57.7 from 58.3 in the previous month due to inflation in the US service sector, supply chain disruption, production capacity restrictions, severe raw material shortage issues, delayed delivery, and labor shortages, which greatly affected the US economy. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI dropped to 49.5 in December 2021 from 50.6 in the previous month. Thailand’s manufacturing sector tends to slow down compared with the last month because there is still price pressure because of high production costs even though the government has eased the COVID-19 outbreak measures. However, it is necessary to monitor the economic recovery to estimate growth in the future.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that crude oil inventories have dropped 3.6 million barrels to 420 million barrels for the week ending December 24, 2021. Overall, crude oil prices increased compared with the previous month. However, the market is still worried about the new variant of the COVID-19 outbreak, Omicron, after the number of infected cases rapidly increased. On December 29, 2021, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 76.56 and 79.23 USD/barrel, respectively.

In November 2021, rubber prices and rubber futures market prices slightly dropped compared with the previous month. Overall, the southern part of Thailand still has continuous rain in 60–80% of the areas. Moreover, Thailand confronts labor shortage issues, rubber leaf fall disease outbreaks, and container shortage issues due to the peak season until the end of the year. Furthermore, there is a full cargo ship problem that needs advanced reservations. Meanwhile, the shipping line has announced that the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Container Excess Dwell Fee will be charged for staying for more than 8 days in port starting November 15, 2021, and some shipping lines effective December 1, 2021. As for the rubber leaf fall disease, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has expedited the inspection and control. Furthermore, RAOT has already sprayed chemicals to eliminate and prevent the spread of the disease to relieve its impact on rubber farmers. Besides, RAOT has proceeded with the project to slow down the rubber sale to collect the yield and sell it at the appropriate prices. They also increase the rubber farmers’ liquidity and proceed with the rubber farmers' income insurance scheme. RAOT projected that the rubber situation has positive aspects. Since the beginning of 2022, rubber demand has increased and will be supported by positive factors because Vietnam and China are already out of the tapping season. At the beginning of December 2021, the 3rd phase of the rubber farmers' income insurance scheme started to compensate the rubber farmers. 

In November 2021, Thailand exported 403,877.91 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), down 4.2% from the previous month and up 9.80% YoY, generating an export income of 21.5 billion baht, down 3.64% compared with the past month and up 26.08% YoY. In the tyre sector, in November 2021, Thailand exported 12.57 million units of all tyres, up 2.27% YoY, with an export value of 17.8 billion baht, up 19.09% YoY.

In November 2021, Thailand’s car production was 165,353 units, the highest in the last 12 months, down 4.12% YoY and up 7.35% compared with the previous month. Thailand’s car production includes production for export of 90,112 units (54.50% of all production) and domestic sales of 75,241 units (45.50% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in November 2021 were 71,716 units, down 3.2% YoY. From January to November 2021, Thailand’s car production was 1,531,337 units, up 19.26% YoY.