November average RSS3 price announced by Central Rubber Market in Songkhla stood at 40.42 Baht/kg, up 3.69% from October due to the following factors.
In November, Thailand's rubber prices had slightly changed; meanwhile, there were slight positive changes in the foreign future exchange markets. Thailand's rubber output dropped, as a result of an increase in rainfall across the Southern region of Thailand, and the spreading of fungal disease in some rubber plantations. This is coupled with the strengthening baht, the Japanese currency, and the US-China trade war. Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut the projection of the global economic expansion as 2.9% from 3.0%. Furthermore, there were the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the beginning of December 2019 that should be concerned about how it will affect the global economy in 2020 and if there will be any added measures or policies for the US economy.
For Thailand, the Monetary Policy Committee had cut the interest rate as 1.25% per year from 1.50% per year because Thailand’s economic expansion tends to slow down than the projection due to the decreasing quantities of exports, resulting in employment and demand in Thailand. Thailand's inflation rate tends to be lower than the lowest bound of the inflation-targeting framework. The interest rate cut is expected to support economic growth. Meanwhile, Thai government had proceeded the stimulus measures to boost economic growth, such as the measure to lessen the cost of living for smallholders and drought sufferers, the investment promotion and investment environment development measures to urge foreign investors to invest and relocate their production bases to Thailand (Thailand Plus Package), the tourism promotion measure, etc. Furthermore, the Rubber Authority of Thailand under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives held Thailand Rubber Expo on November 29 to December 1, 2019, at Impact Exhibition Hall 5, Muangthong Thani, Nonthaburi. Thailand rubber Expo aims to stimulus all sectors to cooperate on MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) in using more rubber latex and more exporting rubber to foreign countries. It is expected that Thailand’s rubber price may increase and will have a positive climb in the middle of the next year.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US dropped as 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI also dropped as 49.3 in November from 50.0 in the previous month. It showed that all sectors were declining. For the oil sector, Russia proposed to still use OPEC+ plans in reducing crude oil production volume as 1.2 million barrels per day, which will end in March 2020. Previously, markets projected that the time of the reducing crude oil measure will be stretched to June 2020 at the meeting on December 5-6, 2019.
In October, Thailand exported 364,793 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 17.12% from September and down 18.77% YoY, generating export income of 14.6 billion baht, up 13.83% from September, down 22.57% YoY. Overall, during the first 10 months of 2019, Thai NR exports (including compound rubber) reached 3,681,490 tons, down 12.71% YoY. The YTD export value touched 157 billion baht, down 16.10% YoY.
In the tyre sector, in October, Thailand exported 11.93 million units of all tyres, up 5.37% YoY, with an export value of 14.7 billion baht, up 3.01% YoY. Overall, during the first 10 months of 2019, Thai exports of all tyres reached 112.39 million units, up 3.13% YoY, generating export revenue of 145 billion baht, up 11.77% YoY.