Global economic growth slows and faces soaring inflation rates. On July 28, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a committee within the Federal Reserve System (Fed), hikes interest rates by 0.75 percentage points. As a result, the US policy interest rate was raised to a range of 2.25%-2.50%. Furthermore, the Fed has signaled that it will continue raising interest rates as it seeks to tamp down inflation and reduce its balance sheet. Moreover, the Fed stated that the US economy has positive factors. Even though spending and production decline, employment remains strong, and the unemployment rate remains low. The US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate for the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. To answer the question, is the US economy in a recession? In terms of economics, two consecutive quarters of negative growth is often considered a technical recession. Federal Reserve raises interest rates as it ramps up the fight against inflation. They are confident that the US economy does not regard it as constituting a recession, although the world is worried. Thailand’s economic outlook still confronted by high crude oil prices and a soaring inflation rate, which affect the cost of living. However, there is significant support for the growth of the tourism and export sectors. Recently, the Thai cabinet approved the fifth phase of the 50:50 co-payment scheme (Kon La Kreung) with 800 baht per person co-pay credit, effective in September–October. The cabinet also approved the budget for state welfare and card-fragile groups with 400 baht per person. Moreover, the cabinet also approved the reduction in the annual tax for electric vehicles within 1 year after registration to help lighten the burden on the people. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) projected the GDP for 2022 and 2023 at 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively. However, the government needs to closely monitor economic recovery and inflation risks. The Monetary Policy Committee will conduct the meeting on August 8, 2022. As for the result of the meeting, it needs to be monitored if the interest rate is increased to suppress inflation.

Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in June 2022 rose to 86.3 from 84.3 in May due to the easing of COVID-19 measures. Moreover, the opening country for tourists results in economic activity recovery. However, the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war causes rising material prices and energy prices. The supply shortage issue remains. Furthermore, the global economic outlook slows. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index data was reported at 45.5 in July 2022, up from 44.3 in the previous month.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in June 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 907,286.22 million baht, up 22.70% YoY and up 6.19% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 971,480.61 million baht, up 36.34% YoY and up 4.59% compared with last month. In terms of trade balance in June 2022, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 64,194.39 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).

According to S&P Global, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) fell to 52.2 in July 2022 from 52.7 the previous month due to supply chain disruption, concerns, and risks such as industry slowdown, inflationary pressure, the rising cost of living, and a drop in consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI stood at 52.4 in July 2022, up from 50.7 the previous month. In June 2022, Thailand’s manufacturing sector improved. The export is growing; however, employment has declined.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories increased by 2.165 million barrels for the week ending July 29, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices were slightly down because the market was concerned over recession after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global GDP forecast for 2022. Meanwhile, the US announced the GDP was lower than expected. Moreover, the crude oil prices were pressured because Libya reoperated its oil production. On July 29, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 98.62 and 110.01 USD/barrel, respectively.

The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in July 2022 were down from the previous month and in line with the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). Lately, Thailand has had rainfall, resulting in less output. Furthermore, leaf fall disease might occur during rainfall. Besides, the pressure factor was the global economic slowdown due to high inflation. Thailand is also faced with a tapped labor issue. Moreover, the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic caused the demand for latex for gloves production to slow down. However, the tyre rubber entrepreneurs still need rubber for delivery. The positive signal is that the sale of electric vehicles rises, increasing rubber demand. In June 2022, Thailand exported 415,926.50 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 24.9 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 12.58 million units of all tyres with an export value of 20.8 billion baht.

In June 2022, Thailand’s car production was 143,016 units, up 10.67% compared with the previous month and up 6.53% YoY, including production for export of 71,002 units (49.65% of all production) and domestic sales of 72,014 units (50.35% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in June 2022 were 67,952 units, up 4.97% compared with the previous month and up 4.6% YoY due to the easing of the government's lockdown and the reopening of the country for tourists and investors.