Global economic growth slows amid a gloomy and more uncertain outlook caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lockdowns in China, and supply chain disruptions. For many countries, the recession will be hard to avoid, including the U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter. On June 7, 2022, the World Bank reduced its world GDP forecast from 4.1% to 2.9% and its Thailand GDP forecast from 3.9% to 2.9%. Furthermore, the World Bank warned Thailand about stagflation that might occur. Recently, Thailand has confronted high oil prices and high inflation, affecting the cost of living. However, Thailand's economy was supported by the growth of the tourism and export sectors.

According to the result of the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision 3/2022 on June 8, 2022, the Committee voted 4 to 3 to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% per year. Meanwhile, 3 members voted to raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage point due to the increase in oil prices and higher cost passthrough. The loosened implementation of the Monetary Policy at present will be less significant. However, to ensure that the economy will continue to recover as expected, the government needs to closely monitor economic recovery and inflation risks.

Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) in May 2022 dropped to 84.3 from 86.2 due to the prolonged and severe Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, global oil prices, goods, material prices, and production costs increase. Furthermore, high inflation and the cost of living put pressure on the global economic recovery. Besides, the lockdown in China has caused a supply shortage. These factors affect economic activity. Therefore, the government should solve the inflation rate issue and should roll out measures to deal with high energy prices. Furthermore, the government should help negotiate the procurement source of potential raw materials to substitutes such as fertilizer, animal feeds, chemicals, etc. Moreover, the government should accelerate to solve the cost of living issue and expedite the rollout of remedial measures to help entrepreneurs enhance liquidity in business operations. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index data was reported at 44.3 in June 2022, down from 44.7 in the previous month.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in May 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 854,371.59 million baht, up 19.34% YoY and up 9.23% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 928,889.55 million baht, up 33.95% YoY and up 8.48% compared with last month. In terms of trade balance in May 2022, Thailand's trade balance recorded a surplus of 74,517.96 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).

According to S&P Global, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) fell to 52.7 in June 2022 from 57.0 the previous month due to supply chain disruption, concerns, and risks such as industry slowdown, inflationary pressure, the rising cost of living, and a drop in consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI stood at 50.7 in June 2022, down from 51.9 the previous month. In May 2022, Thailand’s manufacturing sector was down as the overall demand decreased, causing concerns. Moreover, the pressure on high prices caused a decrease in spending.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that crude oil inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels for the week ending June 24, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices were at a high level. Overall, crude oil prices remained stable at a high level as the market's concerns over oil supply remained tight after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they might be unable to increase their production. Meanwhile, the G7 Leaders' Summit agreed to find a solution to limit oil prices in Russia in the global market due to the rising crude oil prices, which might lead to inflation. On June 30, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 105.76 and 114.81 USD/barrel, respectively.

The average rubber prices announced by the Central Rubber Market in Songkhla in June 2022 were up from the previous month and in line with the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The pressure factor was the global economic slowdown due to high inflation. As a result, the interest rate was accelerated to control inflation. From the end of May to June 2022, rubber prices were volatile, causing concerns for rubber farmers. Lately, Thailand has had rainfall, resulting in less output. Besides, demand for latex-based products has slowed, and latex prices will continue to balance according to the law of demand and supply. In May 2022, Thailand exported 390,792.53 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 23.7 billion baht. In the tyre sector, Thailand exported 12.66 million units of all tyres with an export value of 20.8 billion baht.

In May 2022, Thailand’s car production was 129,231 units, up 9.72% compared with the previous month but down 7.80% YoY, including production for export of 65,839 units (50.95% of all production) and domestic sales of 63,392 units (49.05% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in May 2022 were 64,735 units, up 15.71% compared with the previous month due to the loosening of the government's lockdown.