The global economic outlook might improve compared to the last COVID-19 outbreak, even though the COVID-19 pandemic is uncertain and needs to be monitored further. The Russia-Ukraine conflict might affect the stagnant international supply chain and global economic growth. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is still confronted with global supply disruption. Brent Oil Futures Contracts increased by approximately 20%, resulting in rising crude oil prices around the world, rising travel and goods transportation costs, and an increasing inflation rate. Meanwhile, food and energy prices are high even before the Russia-Ukraine war. Food and medical supplies demand continues to increase. Furthermore, prices for electronics and technology products are rising. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine remains prolonged or more severe, it might lead to a further revision of the world economic outlook this year. Moreover, the economic measures that the United States, Europe, and other countries enforced on Russia will have a huge impact on the global economy and financial markets. Recently, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported the result of the 1st/2022 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting on February 9, 2022, that the committee decided to remain the interest rate at 0.50 per year.

January’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) rose to 88.0 from 86.8 due to the easing of the COVID-19 outbreak prevention measures. Moreover, many economic activities are back to operating, including the production sector, trade sector, and domestic travel. However, the cost of production is rising due to the rising price of raw materials, energy, and transportation. In addition, currency exchange is volatile. Moreover, container shortage issues and the high freight rate issues remain. These factors affect economic activity. Therefore, the government should take care of the inflation rate issue and should expedite solving the cost of living issue. Furthermore, the government should expedite the rollout of remedial measures to help businesses that are affected by the impact of COVID-19. Overall, Thailand's consumer confidence index data was reported at 44.6 in February 2022.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in January 2022, Thailand’s export income value was 708,312.30 million baht, up 20.70% YoY but down 12.63% compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, Thailand’s import value was 802,688.84 million baht, up 34.54% YoY but down 3.67% compared with the previous month. In terms of trade balance in January 2022, Thailand's trade balance recorded a deficit of 94,376.54 million baht. (Ministry of Commerce, 2022).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in February 2022 was up to 57.3 from 55.5 in the previous month because production capacity pressures decreased and new orders enhanced the overall growth. However, the selling prices have risen. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI rose to 52.5 in February 2022 from 51.7 in the previous month. Thailand’s manufacturing sector has expanded because domestic producers have confidence in economic recovery. However, domestic producers are still confronted with rising raw material costs, freight, and transportation costs. Moreover, many people are still worried about the Omicron outbreak.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that crude oil inventories have dropped by 6.1 million barrels to 409.9 million barrels for the week ending February 25, 2022. Overall, crude oil prices increased compared with the previous month. On February 28, 2022, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 95.72 and 109.9 USD/barrel, respectively.

In February 2022, rubber prices and rubber futures market prices slightly increased. In this quarter, rubber yield is low due to the non-tapping season (rubber plantation areas in the north, north-east, and eastern parts of Thailand will be in non-tapping season starting in the middle of February). Moreover, there are rubber leaf fall disease outbreaks in the south and east of Thailand. As a result, fewer rubber yields are available on the market. However, rubber prices are under pressure from the volatile rubber prices in the futures market due to the tension between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, the container shortage issue remains. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has forecasted that Thailand's rubber exports in 2022 will increase by 2% from the previous year.

In January 2022, Thailand exported 426,749.04 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), generating an export income of 23.8 billion baht. In the tyre sector, in January 2022, Thailand exported 12.95 million units of all tyres, with an export value of 18.5 billion baht.

In January 2022, Thailand’s car production was 151,747 units, down 1.70% compared with the previous month, but up 2.45% YoY. Thailand’s car production includes production for export of 77,039 units (50.77% of all production) and domestic sales of 74,708 units (49.23% of all production). Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic car sales in January 2022 were 69,455 units, down 19.37% compared with the previous month but up 25.8% YoY.