In January, Thailand’s rubber prices had slightly changed; meanwhile, the foreign future exchange markets had slightly dropped. Natural rubber situation continues to slow down in line with global economic growth as the economic factors, drought, closed-tapping season, and the spreading of fungal disease, resulting in the dropped of the rubber yield. Moreover, the escalating global spread of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (Covid-19) put large effects on the world as well as Thailand because China and Thailand had high economic relations, such as the export and tourism sectors. For the crude oil sector, the crude oil price was fluctuation. Crude oil price dropped, driven by the Wuhan novel coronavirus (Covid-19). However, the crude oil price was supported by the closed down of the crude oil export terminal and crude oil manufactories in Libya, forced by Libyan protesters.

During 13-15 January 2020, the Rubber Authority of Thailand has held the Meeting of Experts on Pestalotiopsis Leaf Disease at Diamond Plaza Hotel, Surat Thani. Experts, a group of plant disease academics and other relevant from international countries attended the meeting. They discussed the emerging diseases and suggested each country to examine the type of the infection. All the research results are very important in finding the measures to cure the fungal disease (leaves fall), spreading through rubber plantations. The Rubber Authority of Thailand, together with the Department of Agriculture is expediting to research the disease species in detail to find the causes. The method will take at least 3 months. If they can find the particular characteristics of the disease, they will find the solutions to cure the infected rubber plantation, as well as the protection measures. Additionally, the Rubber Authority of Thailand suggested smallholdings to be more careful in cultivating rubber trees to prevent rubber plantation from infected. They also suggested the smallholdings to frequently fertilize rubber trees.

 In 2020, Thailand’s economy tends to reach more risk factors. In January 2020, the Thai Baht has depreciated by 3.8%, which is estimated to have a chance to expand below the forecast. However, the Monetary Policy Committee will hold the meeting to consider the interest rate policy by the end of February 2020 because of the slowdown of the fourth quarter of Thailand’s economy in 2019. The exports were sagging, which showed great effects on Thailand's economy. Comparing to the first half of 2019, the private consumption expenditure was a slowdown, driven by the income factors, as well as the weakness of consumer confidence, although Thai government had rolled out the measures to boost purchasing power. The slowdown of domestic and international demands caused the shrink of the manufacturing sector and economic indices. Earlier, the Thai baht had soared against the U.S. dollar. It was the advantage of Thailand because the trade balance rose. Furthermore, it was a good opportunity for the private sector to import machinery as well as raw materials to produce their commodities. However, if there are no new orders from the buyers, and the domestic consumers did not expand, why the private sector has to invest in new machinery.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US up to 50.9 in January from 47.8 in December. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI dropped as 49.9 in January from 50.1 in December. The production sector was continual to slow down from the end of 2019 until the beginning of 2020. For the oil sector, OPEC+ agreed to continue in reducing crude oil production volume. Furthermore, the escalating global spread of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (Covid-19) caused many counties to control the entry into or travel out of China. Moreover, the meeting might be held earlier than the former agenda, which was the end of March 2020. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the crude oil volume in stock on 24 January 2020 increased 3.5 million barrels, driven by reducing the production volume of skimming refineries after the slowdown of Benzene and Diesel’s demand of the U.S.

 In December, Thailand exported 431,806.75 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), up 3.77% from November and down 3.5% YoY, generating export income of 17.2 billion baht, up 5.81% from November, down 6.3% YoY. Overall, in 2019, Thai NR exports (including compound rubber) reached 4,529,419.46 tons, down 11.77% YoY. The YTD export value touched 190 billion baht, down 15.34% YoY.

In the tyre sector, in December, Thailand exported 11.33 million units of all tyres, down 1.44% YoY, with an export value of 13.5 billion baht, down 4.35% YoY. Overall, in 2019, Thai exports of all tyres reached 135.15 million units, up 2.62% YoY, generating export revenue of 173 billion baht, up 9.32% YoY.