In October 2020, rubber prices rise in line with Japan's futures market (JPX/TOCOM) and China's futures market (SHFE) because rubber-producing countries confront with tapping obstacle, which has been affected by the storm and increased rainfall including Thailand, which has rained about 60-80 percent of the Southern region. Besides, rubber supplies out to the market in fewer quantities, and lack of rubber tapping labors. However, the COVID-19 outbreak, Thai currency (Baht), Thailand’s political instability, Phytophthora leaf fall outbreak, and crude oil prices are the factors that worry smallholders, entrepreneurs, as well as investors during the economic recession. October's average RSS3 price announced by Central Rubber Market in Songkhla stood at 64.17 Baht/kg, up 12.76% from the previous month.

Before the COVID-19 outbreak happened, the global economy was also in the recession stage. Therefore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is stagnant. Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak is forcing central banks and governments around the world to respond by injecting trillions of dollars into the financial system, which is the largest economic stimulus the world has ever experienced. The economic stimulus also prevents the financial system and companies from bankruptcy. It would be long-term support measures. Recently, governments around the world have fully implemented monetary and fiscal policies to lessen the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing measures to support businesses, especially SMEs, as well as measures to take care of the household and employment sectors. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) still expects the world economy to shrink at -4.4% this year.

In 2020, Thailand’s economy still tends to shrink but will slowly recover. However, the current political rally must be monitored closely because it might affect confidence, consumption, and possibly tourism. Thai government should expedite to solve the situation immediately. If the political rally situation is prolonged, it will affect the economy overall. Moreover, due to the new normal after the COVID-19, the recovery of economic activities will be uneven, which is expected to take time at least two years, and it is uncertain. Solving economic problems should be adjusted according to various situations. Furthermore, it should be flexible, consistent, and to the point so that the economy can recover sustainably.

September’s Thailand Industrial Sentiment Index (TISI) is up to 85.2 from 84.0 due to the loosening lockdown measure, which supports the domestic economy to recover. Economic stimulus measures and support SMEs entrepreneur measures lead to better purchasing power. However, Thailand confronts a lack of laborers. Even though the import is recovering, some borders are still closed.  The next Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will conduct on November 18, 2020.

In terms of Thailand’s international trade in September 2020, Thailand’s export income value 609,838.49 million baht, down 2.24% yoy, and down 4.00% compared with August 2020. From January to September 2020, Thailand’s export income value 5,387,040.23 million baht, down 7.69% yoy.

In terms of trade balance in September 2020, Thailand recorded a trade surplus of 61,819.27 million baht, up 101.18% from a trade surplus of 30,728.29 million baht in September 2019 (Ministry of Commerce, 2020).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) informed that the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the US rose to 53.4 in October, up from 53.2 in September. Meanwhile, Thailand’s PMI rose up to 50.8 in October, up from 49.9 in September. Due to the following factors. Higher production requirements led firms to make more input purchases and build greater stores of both input materials and finished goods. While overall new orders increased further in October, export sales remained in decline, reflecting a subdued global trade environment. Factory employment continued to fall. Moreover, entrepreneurs worried about the longer-term impact of the pandemic on the economy, and entrepreneurs still face financial liquidity problems.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced that the crude oil inventories of the U.S. have increased more than 4.3 million barrels for the week ending on 23 October 2020, because oil refineries are back on their operations after the Tropical Storm Delta. Moreover, the increase is more than the expected 1.2 million barrels. In terms of crude oil price, it tends to down 3% due to the worries of the U.S. about oil demand slow down. Meanwhile, the oil demand in Asia tends to increase, especially in China and India, which increases its oil imports. The refineries in India require more crude oil to respond to the domestic demand, which will increase during the Navratri festival on 17-26 October 2020 and Diwali festival on 14 November 2020. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two mains oil production in OPEC+, agreed to continually decrease their production capacity as 7.7 million barrels per day until 2021 from the former agreement as 2020 because crude oil prices are still pressed from lockdown measure in EU as well as the production increase of Libya. However, they will discuss further details in the OPEC meeting on 30 November – 1 December 2020. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices slightly changed. On October 30, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil prices stood at 35.79 and 37.46 USD/barrel, respectively.

 

In September 2020, Thailand exported 304,622.58 tons of natural rubber (including compound rubber), down 8.59% from the previous month, and down 2.19% yoy, generating an export income of 12.1 billion baht, down 4.59% compared with the past month, down 5.68% yoy. In the tyre sector, in September 2020, Thailand exported 12.81 million units of all tyres, up 17.85% yoy, with an export value of 15.8 billion baht, up 10.44% YoY.

The amount of Thailand's car production in September 2020 is 150,345 units, down 11.29% yoy, including 67,964 units or 45.21% at export and 82,381 units or 54.79% at domestic sales. However, the amount of Thailand's car production in September 2020 increased by 28.22% compared with the previous month. The car production for exports down 25.41%; meanwhile, the car production for domestic sales up 5.14%. From January to September 2020, Thai produced 963,066 of cars, down 38.76%yoy.